The international community is increasingly dismissing statements by US President Donald Trump, a development that poses challenges not only for the United States but for the broader global system. While the US remains the world’s most powerful state, its current administration has become unpredictable even to its own allies. This assessment was offered by political analyst Mikael Zolyan.
According to him, unpredictability was initially intended to affect US adversaries, but the outcome has been the opposite: rivals have adapted, while allies now face growing uncertainty.
Military power is not enough
Developments around Iran, Zolyan argues, demonstrate that military strength alone is insufficient to achieve strategic goals. Clear political objectives are essential, as any conflict ultimately serves defined political ends.
He notes that in the case of the US — at least under the current administration — it remains unclear what the actual objectives are in actions against Iran. Whether the goal is regime change, the removal of specific figures, or the neutralization of military capabilities remains uncertain. This ambiguity, he suggests, is a central issue.
Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s growing influence
Zolyan highlights the situation around the Strait of Hormuz as evidence that the US has not fully anticipated the consequences of its actions. As a result, a new dynamic has emerged in which Iran, in some respects, has strengthened its influence compared to the pre-conflict period.
He adds that the situation could change dramatically if hostilities resume and lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. However, at present, several key observations can be made: the US and Israel have not achieved their objectives, Iran’s influence in the Persian Gulf has increased, and US-aligned Arab states have begun exploring alternative options.
It is also notable that Pakistan has taken on a mediating role in the region, which Zolyan describes as a somewhat paradoxical development given its capabilities and position.
He draws parallels with the experience of Russian peacekeeping missions, noting that the effectiveness of such “peacekeeping” roles is often questionable, and that the outcome in this case may prove similarly ambiguous.
Implications for Armenia
Regarding the implications for Armenia, Zolyan emphasizes that abandoning previously reached agreements with Washington would be a mistake. Many of these arrangements, he notes, were established during the administration of Joe Biden and developed at an institutional level.
At the same time, he stresses that the credibility of the United States, both globally and regionally, has experienced significant strain.