Turkey’s peace-oriented rhetoric in the South Caucasus is driven by pragmatic calculation and long-term strategic objectives. This view was expressed by Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan.
From a middle power to a global actor
According to him, Turkey is currently seeking to elevate its position in the global political system. Despite remaining a “middle power” in terms of economic and military indicators, Ankara aims to reposition itself among higher-tier states.
This ambition is reflected in the concept promoted by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — “the world is bigger than five.” The idea calls for expanding the permanent membership of the UN Security Council, with Turkey seeking inclusion in that circle.
As part of this approach, Ankara actively tries to act as a mediator in various international processes, thereby increasing its influence and prestige. As a result, the South Caucasus no longer holds the same primary political significance for Turkey as it did a decade ago.
The region as an economic corridor
At the same time, the region’s importance is growing in economic terms. The South Caucasus is gradually integrating into global economic systems and is viewed as a key component of the “Middle Corridor” linking China with Europe.
Safrastyan notes that trade turnover between China and the European Union already reaches hundreds of billions of dollars and is expected to grow further. Turkey is interested in channeling part of this trade through its territory, strengthening its role as an energy and transport hub.
In this context, the South Caucasus, and particularly Armenia, gains importance as a critical link in regional connectivity.
Closed borders as a strategic choice
Nevertheless, Turkey continues to keep its border with Armenia closed. According to Safrastyan, this is also a calculated decision.
He explains that Ankara is currently focused on the construction of the Kars–Nakhchivan railway, after which it will be able to more effectively utilize the region’s transport potential. Until then, Turkey is not rushing to open the border, as its priority is to secure a controlled and efficient role in overland trade routes between China and Europe.
Despite the existence of the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, experience has shown that it does not fully meet Turkey’s strategic needs, both in technical capacity and route efficiency.