The signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is unlikely but not impossible, according to political analyst Hakob Badalyan.
He emphasized that the key issue is not the act of signing itself but the political cost Armenia may have to pay for this step. He noted, “It’s important to understand what additional demands are being made of Yerevan beyond the two already stated. That’s the core of the issue.” In his view, these demands may relate to the unblocking of communications, border delimitation and demarcation, and the so-called “return” of Azerbaijanis to Armenia.
Badalyan stressed that agreement on the text of a peace deal does not mean a genuine consensus has been reached between the parties. He recalled that several months ago, it was announced that the points of the agreement had been agreed upon, yet Baku continues to insist on at least two preconditions: the dissolution of the Minsk Group and amendments to Armenia’s Constitution.
Furthermore, the analyst pointed out that there are significant issues not covered by the agreement. These include the unblocking of communications, which essentially focuses solely on establishing a direct link between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, as well as border delimitation and demarcation. “What happened in Kirants is not delimitation. It was the fulfillment of Baku’s demand to surrender territories. Delimitation and demarcation have not even started,” Badalyan noted. According to him, all these unresolved issues and processes cast doubt on the feasibility of establishing lasting peace, even if a document is signed.
Regarding the upcoming meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev in Abu Dhabi, Badalyan considers it noteworthy as it signals a shift in the geography of the negotiation process. While previous meetings were mediated by the US, EU, or Russia, they are now effectively moving to the Middle East, specifically the Persian Gulf region. He noted that this is not merely a geographical rotation but a reflection of the growing involvement of certain actors in the process.
In his opinion, Turkey played a significant role in organizing the meeting. Badalyan recalled that talks about negotiations in Abu Dhabi began immediately after Pashinyan’s visit to Turkey, while prior to the trip, the possibility of a Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Turkey itself was discussed. He emphasized, “I believe Turkey was one of the main initiators of this meeting, and the choice of the Emirates as a venue is due to their perception as a neutral party.” He also did not rule out some involvement by China, noting that Armenia’s Foreign Minister, during a visit to China, held a phone call with his UAE counterpart.