The itinerary of U.S. Vice President Jay D. Pence—first to Armenia, then to Azerbaijan—dashes the hopes associated with a possible resolution of the prisoners of war issue, political analyst Robert Margaryan said.
According to him, if the visit had been in the opposite direction, there might have been hope that on the way from Baku to Yerevan, Pence could have acted as a mediator in resolving certain issues. However, in the current format, that possibility practically does not exist.
Baku’s Verdicts and Closing of Leverage Opportunities
The analyst draws attention to the fact that just days before Pence’s visit, Azerbaijan sentenced five military-political leaders of Artsakh to life imprisonment. Margaryan believes this was intended to block any potential leverage related to the release of prisoners of war.
He noted that while the trials were still ongoing, mediation for release would have been easier. After the verdicts, however, Baku sought to prevent any mediating initiatives, relying on the already existing sentences.
Regarding ordinary prisoners of war, Margaryan also emphasizes the absence of a role for Armenian authorities, noting that without active official demands from Yerevan, no pressure could be effective.
Domestic Interests and Electoral Calculations
Margaryan is convinced that the return of the former leadership of Artsakh to Armenia at this stage is not advantageous for Nikol Pashinyan. In his assessment, the current authorities have no interest or desire to take steps in this direction, as such a return would not bring political benefit to the Prime Minister.
He points out that only in the case of ordinary prisoners of war might there be governmental interest—to use them for domestic political purposes. In the case of the Artsakh leadership, however, such a scenario is impossible, and as a result, Margaryan believes Pence is also neither performing nor able to perform significant mediation efforts in this regard.