Amid rising tensions in the region, Azerbaijan may also become involved in a potential military conflict — even regardless of its own intentions. This view was expressed by political analyst Alen Gevondyan while commenting on current regional developments.
According to him, such a scenario may partly stem from the political and military cooperation that emerged during the 2020 war in Artsakh, when Azerbaijan received active support from Israel and Turkey.
Development of military infrastructure in southern Azerbaijan
Gevondyan notes that in recent years significant military infrastructure projects have been implemented in southern parts of Azerbaijan. As an example, he points to the international airport built in Fuzuli.
Although it is officially presented as a civilian airport, such facilities can also be used for military purposes. They allow rapid deployment of military equipment and provide major logistical capabilities.
He also states that construction of bunkers and the deployment of underground missile systems have taken place in southern regions. According to Gevondyan, Israeli planners and Turkish construction structures may have been involved in these projects.
He does not rule out that such infrastructure was built with the possibility of escalation around Iran in mind.
Military spending as an indicator of foreign policy
Gevondyan emphasizes that a state’s foreign policy should be assessed not only through rhetoric but also through military spending.
In recent years, Azerbaijan has actively purchased offensive weapons from several countries. According to the political analyst, Baku has acquired military equipment from Pakistan and long-range artillery as well as various types of military hardware from European countries, including Serbia and the Czech Republic.
He believes that the nature of these acquisitions clearly reflects elements of an offensive military strategy.
The Syunik factor in the regional balance
According to Gevondyan, if the regional conflict expands and Azerbaijan becomes involved, the situation in Syunik will be directly affected.
In such a scenario, the regional balance of power could shift rapidly, while Armenia’s territorial integrity may face new challenges.
The political analyst concludes that the region remains highly unstable, and future developments may depend both on the actions of regional actors and on the influence of major international powers.