Armenian society recently learned about what Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan had attempted to whisper to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during the parliamentary election campaign. The issue concerns Turkey’s decision to lift restrictions on bilateral trade with Armenia.
A promised symbolic decision
It is still unclear what exactly this decision means in terms of the logic of Armenian-Turkish normalization. Pashinyan recently stated that Armenia will now be directly listed as the export destination for goods shipped from Turkey, whereas previously exports were processed through third countries before entering Armenia. The decision is expected to somewhat simplify trade documentation between the two countries.
While businesses involved in trade may benefit from this change, the broader significance of the decision for Armenian-Turkish normalization remains unclear.
According to the author, the decision changes almost nothing in practical terms because it is primarily symbolic. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had already announced in December 2025 that symbolic steps regarding Armenian-Turkish relations would be taken in early 2026. However, five months into the year, this appears to be the first such move.
The timing, according to the analysis, suggests that the step is linked to Armenia’s parliamentary election campaign.
Turkey wants Pashinyan’s victory
Turkey’s position toward Armenia’s elections was openly voiced by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who stated that Ankara wants Pashinyan to win and his policies to continue. According to the author, no further explanation is needed regarding why Turkey prefers such an outcome.
Within this logic, Turkey’s decision can be interpreted as symbolic support for the current Armenian authorities and an attempt to create a propaganda effect that Yerevan can present as another diplomatic achievement or success of the “peace agenda.”
However, the author argues that this cannot be considered a real achievement in Armenian-Turkish normalization.
Does an Armenian-Turkish process still exist?
The author raises a broader question: does an Armenian-Turkish normalization process still exist as an independent political category?
He recalls that Turkish officials have repeatedly stated that Armenian-Turkish normalization will happen only after a full Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement is achieved.
According to the analysis, this means that meetings between special envoys, public statements, and symbolic gestures are increasingly serving to conceal the absence of a genuine process rather than demonstrate its existence.
Before the 2020 war, Armenian-Turkish normalization was treated as a separate political category. Today, however, Ankara has effectively tied it completely to Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization.
The author stresses that for Azerbaijan, the Armenian-Azerbaijani issue no longer concerns only Artsakh but Armenia itself.
No independent process remains
According to the author, there is effectively no independent Armenian-Turkish process anymore. Meetings between Armenian and Turkish officials have largely become a reporting mechanism through which Armenia informs Turkey about developments in the Armenian-Azerbaijani track.
The analysis argues that Turkey has effectively delegated the Armenian issue to Azerbaijan and transformed Armenian-Turkish normalization into a kind of “reward” for Armenia’s agreement with Baku’s demands.
Under this logic, Armenia must first agree to Azerbaijan’s conditions — conditions coordinated with Turkey — and only afterward receive the “prize” of normalization with Ankara. Until then, only symbolic and propaganda-oriented steps are expected.
From subject to object
According to the author, this transformation is the most significant development in recent years.
Previously, Armenia was viewed as a political subject within the normalization process with Turkey, even if not an equal one.
Today, however, the author believes that even international actors increasingly perceive Armenia not as a subject but as an object that must first reach agreements with Azerbaijan and only afterward receive limited normalization with Turkey as a form of reward.
Political commentator Hakob Badalyan.