Tensions between the United States and Iran remain at the center of international attention. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s response to Washington’s proposals was “completely unacceptable” and did not rule out the possibility of taking tougher measures.
Whether Trump’s statements signal new military operations or whether the conflict will continue on the diplomatic front was commented on by Ara Papyan, head of the Modus Vivendi analytical center.
According to Papyan, the conflict will continue through military methods, although different stages may include both escalations and periods of relative de-escalation.
Why Trump is not rushing toward a final escalation
According to the analyst, Trump is currently unlikely to take drastic and final steps or attempt regime change in Iran for several reasons.
One of them, he believes, is the domestic political agenda in the United States and the upcoming elections.
“Victory is needed immediately before elections because victory is a rapidly perishable product. If you win today, four months later everyone will forget. It has to be ‘sold’ to voters, especially Jewish and Iranian communities, which are very important,” Papyan stated.
He also argued that prolonging the conflict creates economic benefits for the United States.
According to him, Arab countries increase purchases of American weapons under conditions of regional tension.
“The longer the process continues, the more weapons Arab countries buy from America. Iran periodically launches strikes, some are intercepted and some are not, so they fall on territories, create fear, and encourage more arms purchases. During this period, eight billion dollars’ worth of weapons were sold,” he said.
Oil prices and strategic calculations
According to Papyan, developments around Iran have increased oil prices, which is also beneficial for Washington.
He noted that the United States also benefits from Venezuelan oil sales.
The analyst added that the main targets of military operations remain Iran’s military-industrial and military facilities, although, according to him, the process is being carried out cautiously.
“I can state, based on fairly reliable internal American sources, that there has never been a goal of dismantling Iran. On the contrary, Iran should remain within these borders because it will be needed for the next war against Turkey,” Papyan declared.