The United States is gradually reducing its direct involvement in the Middle East while seeking to prevent a vacuum that could emerge as a result of its reduced presence. According to Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan, this process is already visible in the region, and in the coming years Washington will focus its main resources on containing China, with greater attention to the Indo-Pacific region.
According to Safrastyan, the behavior of Kurdish armed groups in Syria is an important example of the gradual decline of the U.S. role in the Middle East.
“In Syria, Kurdish armed groups are abandoning armed struggle and laying down their weapons, and this is largely due to the United States factor,” the Turkologist said.
In his assessment, the Kurds benefited from U.S. support for a long time, but Washington is now gradually reducing its support and involvement.
“The Americans, so to speak, are pulling back,” Safrastyan said.
The Turkologist believes that after the end of the conflict between the United States and Iran, a further decline in American influence in the Middle East could become more apparent.
However, in his assessment, this does not mean a complete withdrawal from the region.
Safrastyan says Washington does not intend to repeat the Afghanistan scenario, when U.S. forces completely withdrew from the country.
Instead, according to him, the United States will gradually reduce the resources it uses to maintain its influence and control in the Middle East.
Under these circumstances, the Turkologist says, new arrangements emerging in the region are becoming particularly important.
In his assessment, the August 7 agreement should also be viewed in the context of a process aimed at filling, through regional actors, the vacuum that could emerge from a possible reduction in the American presence.
Safrastyan is convinced that this process has been coordinated with the United States.
“I am convinced that it has been coordinated with the Americans,” he said, noting that negotiations in this direction had continued for around two years.
At the same time, according to Safrastyan, the shift in U.S. policy is not limited to the Middle East. He sees similar trends in Europe.
Statements from Washington increasingly emphasize that European countries themselves should assume greater responsibility for their own security.
According to Safrastyan, this points to a broader strategy of gradually reducing U.S. military and security involvement in Europe.
Viewed at the global level, the Turkologist believes that over the coming decades the United States will direct its main resources toward regions directly connected to China.
These include, in particular, the Indo-Pacific region, the Pacific Ocean and Oceania.
The primary U.S. objective will be to limit the expansion of Chinese influence and maintain its own position in the region.
In this context, Europe and the Middle East may gradually take a secondary place on the U.S. strategic agenda.
“We see that the United States will strengthen its presence in the region directly connected to China. That is where it will now concentrate its resources in order to limit the scope of Chinese influence,” Safrastyan said.