The impact of Russian restrictions on Armenian exports could be particularly significant over the next two months, as they coincide with the peak agricultural export season. This opinion was expressed by economist Haykaz Fanyan.
An Attempt to Influence Electoral Sentiment
According to Fanyan, the current situation has not only an economic dimension but also a political one and may be linked to efforts to influence public sentiment ahead of elections in Armenia.
“In my view, this is partly an attempt to affect pre-election attitudes. Most likely, by July the situation will be resolved in one form or another. Once the most active apricot export season begins in late June and early July, we may see a settlement of the issue. After a new political situation emerges, new arrangements could be reached,” he said.
The Most Vulnerable Sectors
The economist noted that several key export industries remain heavily dependent on the Russian market.
According to him, more than 90 percent of Armenian fish exports are shipped to Russia. The share exceeds 80 percent for brandy, reaches 88 percent for wine, and stands above 90 percent for apricots, tan, and various fruit and vegetable products.
“Each sector has its own specific vulnerabilities when examined product by product,” he explained.
Brandy Producers Face Additional Risks
Fanyan paid particular attention to the Armenian brandy sector, where re-export mechanisms also play a role.
According to him, imported alcohol is sometimes processed and exported under Armenian branding, creating additional exposure to restrictions.
“We are all aware that the brandy industry involves a certain degree of re-export activity. Alcohol is imported and later exported as Armenian brandy. This segment could become one of the first targets of restrictions. If exports are limited, imports from countries such as Georgia and Spain may also decline,” he said.
Diversification Remains the Main Solution
The economist recalled how Armenian businesses adapted to changing international market conditions in recent years.
As an example, he pointed to flower producers that redirected greenhouse production toward exports when Russian importers faced restrictions in the Dutch flower market.
Today similar challenges have emerged again, but Fanyan believes flexibility and diversification remain the best response.
“If flowers from Kenya and Ecuador can successfully reach the Netherlands, Armenian flowers can do the same. Transportation costs are comparable and in some cases even lower. We must focus on quality, competitiveness, and access to new markets,” he stated.
He acknowledged that intellectual property and royalty payments for certain plant varieties create additional costs but argued that Armenian businesses should have pursued diversification much earlier.
State Subsidies Are Not a Complete Answer
Fanyan also emphasized the scale of the potential economic impact.
According to his estimates, the total value of sectors affected by possible restrictions ranges from $400 million to $800 million.
This includes agricultural products, brandy, fish products, and other export categories that rely heavily on the Russian market.
The economist believes the government cannot fully compensate businesses for such losses.
“State support is important, but it is impossible to rely solely on public resources. Government capacities are also limited,” he said.
In his view, the long-term solution lies in improving competitiveness and expanding access to alternative markets rather than depending on state subsidies.