Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is interested in moving political processes into the streets. This view was expressed by political analyst Stepan Danielyan.
According to him, the main reason is a legitimacy problem that emerged after the parliamentary elections. In his assessment, the government is attempting to address this challenge through public mobilization rather than through political mechanisms.
International Reactions Remain Mixed
Danielyan notes that international assessments of Armenia’s recent elections have not been entirely positive.
According to him, Russia did not formally congratulate the authorities on their victory, while significant reservations remain within European political circles.
The analyst says that conversations with European lawmakers and representatives of European institutions revealed substantial criticism of the electoral process.
“Even international observer missions noted that the elections were not fully competitive. If an election is not competitive, then the question arises whether it can truly be considered a genuine election,” he argues.
Street Mobilization as a Test of Legitimacy
Danielyan believes this explains the authorities’ interest in street-level political activity.
In his view, Pashinyan’s political logic is straightforward: if the opposition challenges the election results, it should be able to demonstrate its claims by mobilizing large numbers of people.
“In his understanding, if the opposition cannot gather more people than the government, then that should be viewed as proof of his legitimacy,” the analyst says.
The Opposition Should Not Rush
In this context, Danielyan considers the opposition’s current strategy reasonable.
According to him, society is still processing the aftermath of the elections, while summer is traditionally not the most effective period for large-scale political mobilization.
Economic Challenges May Intensify
At the same time, he believes the government could face serious socio-economic challenges in the coming months.
He points to budgetary policies, social programs, healthcare insurance initiatives, and Russian restrictions as factors that may create additional pressure.
Danielyan notes that Russia remains the primary export market for Armenian agricultural products and alcoholic beverages.
As a result, disruptions in that market could have a significant impact on Armenia’s economy.
Public Dissatisfaction Could Grow by Autumn
The political analyst does not rule out a rise in public dissatisfaction by the end of the year.
According to him, citizens who believed government promises regarding higher living standards and economic growth may become the core participants in future protest movements.
“I believe these people could begin demanding street protests and political action by late autumn,” he says.
Geopolitical Changes Matter
Danielyan also stresses the importance of international developments for Armenia’s domestic political environment.
He notes that the government’s peace agenda is partly justified by the interest of the United States and Western actors in opening regional transportation routes.
However, the broader geopolitical environment is changing.
Iran and Russia Remain Key Factors
According to the analyst, recent developments in the Middle East and Iran’s growing regional role could alter the balance of power.
He argues that Tehran continues to insist that the TRIPP project cannot be implemented at the expense of Iranian interests.
Russia, meanwhile, has also indicated that it will not support arrangements that bypass its strategic interests in the region.
A New Regional Balance Could Reshape Politics
Against this backdrop, Danielyan believes the emerging regional balance of power could significantly influence Armenia’s internal political developments.
“In the context of geopolitical changes, I do not believe the current authorities will remain in the same position for a long time,” he concludes.
He adds that several legislative initiatives currently being advanced by the government may also indicate the possibility of significant political developments in the near future.