The widespread belief in Armenia that constructive and mutually beneficial relations with Russia can still provide a balanced foreign policy no longer has a realistic foundation. This opinion was expressed by political analyst Ruben Mehrabyan.
According to him, discussions about “balancing” are based on the assumption that meaningful and constructive cooperation with Moscow remains possible, whereas he considers this to be an illusion rather than a realistic political calculation.
As an example, Mehrabyan points to Russia’s calls for Armenia to hold a referendum on either pursuing European integration or maintaining its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union.
He argues that referendums are exclusively Armenia’s internal affair and that no foreign country has the right to interfere in such decisions.
Armenia Should Strengthen Its Institutions
Mehrabyan believes Armenia should reinforce its chosen strategic direction through stronger institutions.
In his view, the country should make greater use of European and American advisory expertise when implementing reforms and improving public administration.
He compares the state administration to a well-organized orchestra in which every institution understands its role and operates within a common strategic framework.
A Favorable Moment to Reduce Dependence
The political analyst argues that current geopolitical conditions provide Armenia with an opportunity to reconsider its dependence on Russia.
According to him, concerns that Moscow could apply pressure similar to what occurred in Georgia or Ukraine should not prevent Armenia from making long-term strategic decisions.
Mehrabyan maintains that Russia exerted pressure on Armenia even during periods when European integration was not part of Yerevan’s political agenda.
Russia’s Capabilities Are Declining
In Mehrabyan’s assessment, the war against Ukraine is gradually reducing Russia’s military, economic, and political capabilities.
He cites the situation in Crimea as an example, arguing that the peninsula is experiencing significant logistical and security challenges.
According to the analyst, Moscow no longer possesses the resources necessary to open additional military fronts or launch new large-scale operations elsewhere.
Geography Also Limits Moscow’s Options
Mehrabyan emphasizes that Armenia shares no common border with Russia.
In his opinion, this significantly limits Moscow’s ability to exert direct military pressure.
Commenting on the Russian military base in Gyumri, he argues that it would be practically impossible to use it as a platform for a forceful scenario.
According to him, Armenia’s law enforcement agencies would be capable of responding rapidly to any unlawful actions.
Hybrid Threats Should Not Be Ignored
At the same time, Mehrabyan warns against dismissing the possibility of hybrid or sabotage-related threats.
He notes that Russia has previously employed such methods in other countries.
Nevertheless, he believes Armenian society, law enforcement agencies, and security services are currently sufficiently prepared to prevent such risks.
Armenia Should Move Beyond Politics of Fear
In conclusion, Mehrabyan argues that Armenia should abandon policies driven by fear.
Instead, he believes the country should accelerate strategic reforms and consistently strengthen the institutions and policies that reinforce its sovereignty and foreign policy independence.