Israel is approaching a period of significant political transformation. Growing domestic divisions, a reassessment of relations with the United States, and the rise of right-wing political forces are reshaping both the country’s internal and foreign policy agenda. Political analyst Sergey Melkonyan shared his assessment of the upcoming elections and the future of US-Israeli relations.
Israel’s Political Landscape Is Moving Further to the Right
According to Melkonyan, Israel’s political transformation should not be interpreted as a move toward liberalization. On the contrary, the country is steadily shifting toward more hardline right-wing positions.
He argues that today’s opposition is, in many respects, even more radical in its rhetoric and proposed policies than the current government.
“If we look at the statements made by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot or former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, both of whom have realistic ambitions to become prime minister, it becomes clear that they advocate considerably tougher policies than Benjamin Netanyahu,” Melkonyan said.
According to the political analyst, the current government is increasingly criticized by the opposition for not being sufficiently decisive.
From Military Aid to Strategic Partnership
Melkonyan believes changes are also taking place within the United States.
According to him, supporters of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement are becoming less willing to spend American taxpayer money on distant regions where they see no clearly defined US national interests.
He argues that this trend is encouraging Israel to reconsider the nature of its strategic relationship with Washington.
The expert noted that the current US military assistance package, which entered into force in 2019, expires in 2028. Under that agreement, the United States provides Israel with approximately $3.8 billion in military assistance each year.
“Israel understands that the United States will not continue ‘giving away’ nearly four billion dollars annually forever. Therefore, it is necessary to move from a model based on assistance toward one based on genuine partnership,” he explained.
According to Melkonyan, this new approach would focus on joint technological projects.
“Israel has already achieved considerable success in air defense and laser technologies. Rather than simply relying on American assistance, the two countries can increasingly cooperate as equal technological partners, fundamentally changing the dynamics of US-Israeli relations,” he said.
Autumn Elections Could Reshape Israeli Politics
The parliamentary elections expected this autumn could become a turning point for Israel.
According to recent opinion polls, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position has weakened significantly. Current projections suggest Netanyahu’s coalition could secure around 50 seats in the Knesset, while the opposition could win approximately 59 seats, with Arab parties holding another 11.
“In Israel, at least 61 seats are required to form a government. This means that the opposition currently has a much stronger chance of taking power than Netanyahu,” Melkonyan noted.
He also argues that the ruling Likud party itself is experiencing internal tensions.
According to the expert, new political figures are emerging while prominent politicians are leaving Netanyahu’s camp. As an example, he pointed to Yuli Edelstein, who has left Likud and is seeking to establish a new right-wing political party together with former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked.
Melkonyan believes Israeli voters dissatisfied with Netanyahu already have several alternative right-wing options.
The Opposition Blames Netanyahu for Foreign Policy Failures
According to Melkonyan, one of the opposition’s principal criticisms concerns Israel’s foreign policy.
Opposition figures argue that Netanyahu’s lengthy tenure has damaged Israel’s relations with key international partners.
They point to two major developments: the United States—Israel’s principal ally—has pursued negotiations and certain understandings with Iran, while simultaneously expanding cooperation with Turkey, another country viewed by many in Israel as a significant regional rival.
According to the opposition, Netanyahu’s policies have contributed to this situation, and they promise to reverse these negative trends and restore Israel’s strategic position on the international stage.