If Armenia truly intends to apply for membership in the European Union in 2027–2028, it will have to leave the Eurasian Economic Union during that period. Political scientist Sergey Melkonyan made this assessment in response to Nikol Pashinyan’s statement in Brussels that Armenia could apply for EU membership in 2027–2028.
Melkonyan pointed out that submitting an application does not mean joining the EU. He said the accession process could take years, and even acceptance of an application would not guarantee that the country becomes a member within the next five or ten years.
In his view, the political significance of Pashinyan’s statement should be considered in the context of the conditions needed to submit an application, rather than the prospect of EU membership itself.
“You can submit an application while hypothetically remaining an EAEU member, but it will be rejected in about six months. Therefore, if you want your application to be considered at all and not rejected, you must no longer be an EAEU member when you submit it,” he said.
By this reasoning, if Armenia plans to apply in 2027–2028 and recognizes that EAEU membership could prevent its application from being accepted, that timetable also implies a political decision to leave the EAEU.
Legal and economic consequences of leaving the EAEU
Addressing Russia’s possible response to Pashinyan’s statement and the prospect of Armenia being removed from the EAEU, Melkonyan said that, from a legal standpoint, no country can be expelled from the union against its will.
In his assessment, the likely outcome would resemble Armenia’s current situation in the CSTO: the country remains a member legally but does not take part in the organization’s work or benefit from the opportunities membership provides. The political scientist believes a similar scenario is likely in the EAEU. Armenia would retain its membership de jure but lose the union’s benefits de facto. The question of announcing a formal withdrawal from both the EAEU and the CSTO could then arise.
Melkonyan said Armenia’s central task in this process would be to limit the negative economic consequences as much as possible. In particular, he stressed the importance of preserving free trade agreements operating within the CIS if Armenia leaves the EAEU, at least on a bilateral basis.
“The main question is whether Armenia can preserve the CIS free trade agreements, at least bilaterally, so that the negative economic consequences do not affect us too severely,” the political scientist said.
According to him, a political arrangement could allow Armenia to leave the EAEU while the free trade agreements operating within the CIS continue to apply to it, preserving some economic opportunities.
Melkonyan emphasized, however, that if those agreements also cease to apply to Armenia, the economic consequences of leaving the EAEU will be more severe.
👉 Politics