US President Donald Trump has most likely already decided to launch another military operation against Iran, and the outcome of the congressional midterm elections will not change that decision. American affairs analyst Suren Sargsyan believes another attack on Iran is highly likely in the coming days. He says that the scenarios being discussed in Washington include a nuclear strike.
Trump will not abandon plans for a strike on Iran
Sargsyan believes that even if Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives in the November 3 midterm elections, this will not prevent Trump from pursuing his foreign policy plans, including another military operation against Iran. He predicts that Republicans will most likely lose their House majority, while they may retain control of the Senate by one or two votes.
He emphasizes that midterm elections are a kind of referendum on confidence in the president: voters also use their ballots to assess the incumbent. If Republicans lose their House majority, Democrats could begin another impeachment process against Trump. Sargsyan does not believe it would lead to his removal from office, however. According to the analyst, that would require 75 votes in the Senate, and Democrats would also have to win over 15 Republicans, which he considers almost impossible.
Losing control of Congress, he says, would complicate Trump’s domestic political work but would not create a serious obstacle to implementing his foreign policy.
Israel is lobbying for a US military strike
“The decision on Iran has, in effect, been made,” Sargsyan says. He recalls that Trump himself said he would not undertake additional military action against Iran during the election campaign but might do so afterward. The analyst therefore considers another attack on Iran in the coming days highly likely.
In Sargsyan’s assessment, the main driving force behind another attack on Iran is Israel rather than Trump. He believes Israel is actively lobbying in Washington for the United States itself to strike Iran.
Sargsyan does not rule out the possibility of nuclear weapons being used against Iran. He refers to information published by Tucker Carlson indicating that such an option is under consideration.
According to that information, the proposed use of nuclear weapons would not target civilians. Instead, it would involve strikes on strategically important Iranian sites, particularly possible nuclear weapons storage facilities or infrastructure connected to enriched uranium.
Sargsyan says the information has neither been denied nor confirmed. Nevertheless, he maintains that such a scenario is the subject of real discussions and that carrying it out would be a catastrophe on a global scale.
No force in Trump’s administration can prevent the war
In the analyst’s view, there are no influential centers of power within the Trump administration capable of preventing a war against Iran. Vice President JD Vance has tried to provide a degree of counterbalance, but his ability to do so is limited.
Sargsyan also links Vance’s position to his political ambitions. Vance is seen as one of the Republicans’ likely future presidential candidates. Yet unpopular decisions by the Trump administration, including a war against Iran, would create serious political problems for him. Sargsyan says Vance could not avoid responsibility for those decisions even if he disagreed with them.
Sargsyan also points to the domestic political cost of war against Iran. He says going to war is unpopular in the United States and that a sharp rise in gasoline prices has already caused serious discontent among Americans. “There are many people protesting. People say it would be better for Iran to have nuclear weapons if we could have cheap fuel,” the analyst says.
According to Sargsyan, Trump’s job approval rating currently stands at just 35–40 percent, which is quite low. The president is therefore heading into the midterms amid public dissatisfaction and opposition to the war.
Even so, Sargsyan does not believe these circumstances will change Trump’s decision. In his assessment, the political and military logic already shaping another attack on Iran will continue to operate regardless of the election results.
In the situation described by the analyst, then, another attack on Iran is not a distant possibility but a development he expects in the coming days. If Israel’s lobbying leads to a nuclear strike, the conflict could become a catastrophe on a global scale.
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