Snap elections in Armenia will only become possible in June next year, according to political analyst Sergey Minasyan, deputy director of the Caucasus Institute.
He says restrictions apply to the possible timing of snap elections. The process could take place after the newly elected National Assembly has worked for one year, meaning June next year.
Minasyan believes there is a political logic to holding snap elections. However, their possible results must also be assessed in light of developments within the country.
If processes involving Armenia in the EAEU worsen the country’s energy, economic and social conditions before the elections, while hybrid attacks and economic pressure are actively employed during the electoral process, the ruling party could perform worse than expected.
Given the connection between snap elections and the adoption of a new Constitution, Minasyan says Azerbaijan will put forward new preconditions before these processes are completed, regardless of whether Armenia meets the previous ones.
In his view, Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia change its Constitution provides an opportunity to delay the signing of a peace treaty. The analyst believes Azerbaijan’s political elite clearly understands the military-technical and geopolitical imbalance of power that has emerged in the region to Armenia’s disadvantage and is likely to persist for a long time. Under these conditions, the slow pace of Armenian–Azerbaijani negotiations, which at times become little more than a formality, is far more advantageous to Azerbaijan’s current leadership.
According to Minasyan, the continuation of the conflict, with Azerbaijan holding an advantage in terms of force, gives its leadership additional opportunities to address domestic problems. These periodically intensify, and the existence of an external conflict can serve as a tool for influencing the domestic political situation.