The situation in Armenian–Russian relations is difficult and could worsen in the near future, political analyst Stepan Grigoryan said, commenting on the current escalation of tensions between Yerevan and Moscow.
According to him, neither side is currently taking reciprocal steps that could help ease tensions. He therefore does not rule out Russia taking action against Armenia in both the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the near future.
He predicts that the CSTO summit in November could produce a decision to strip Armenia of its voting rights in the organization.
The analyst noted that Armenia has frozen its participation in the CSTO. In his assessment, the organization’s other five members could attempt to use provisions of its charter to restrict Armenia’s rights. However, he believes Russia would not stop there.
Grigoryan does not rule out the possibility that the suspension of Armenia’s membership could be discussed at the EAEU summit in December.
He acknowledged that the EAEU’s existing legal framework does not provide a clear mechanism for terminating Armenia’s membership. Nevertheless, he said, the union’s member states could attempt to find legal grounds for action against Armenia.
The analyst recalled the report prepared by four EAEU countries — Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. According to him, the document attempts to substantiate Armenia’s alleged failure to fulfill its international obligations by referring to the Vienna Convention concerning the fulfillment of international treaties.
Grigoryan believes these accusations against Armenia are unfounded. He argues that Russia is itself violating the principles of the EAEU’s common market by restricting Armenian goods’ access to the Russian market.
“In reality, neither the EAEU charter provides a way to expel Armenia, nor does the Vienna Convention allow it. But they can suspend membership, and, in my opinion, they will use suspension against us,” the analyst said.
At the same time, he did not rule out attempts to find the necessary legal justifications if there is a political desire to do so.