Developments in Armenia, including the brawl in the National Assembly, are part of an ongoing chain of repression that began during the election campaign and is gradually intensifying, political analyst Armen Baghdasaryan said.
“The authorities’ actions will grow increasingly harsh because the challenges they face require steps that are not populist,” he said. Explaining his assessment, Baghdasaryan noted that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is already openly saying he is prepared to call snap elections only if he is convinced that the current opposition forces will not enter parliament.
In effect, Pashinyan has said directly that he will call snap elections if he is 100 percent certain those political forces will not win seats in parliament. This statement should be viewed in the context of the authorities’ recent actions because, as Baghdasaryan emphasized, the leaders of those forces are currently under arrest: one is under house arrest, while the others are in custody.
There were signs of repression during the local elections as well. The political analyst recalled that, during those elections, people were forced under threat of arrest to run on the Civil Contract party’s list; those who refused were detained or placed under arrest.
In his assessment, all this should be seen as a pattern established by the authorities — a new normal that will become more entrenched. He described a situation in which attempts to criticize the government or raise serious questions could be met with physical violence. “Keep quiet, sit still, or we’ll beat you up,” is how Baghdasaryan characterized the emerging atmosphere.
He does not believe that any government representative will be held accountable in any possible proceedings concerning the incident in the National Assembly. In his view, similar cases in the past show that the ruling elite does not punish those who behave this way and even gives them opportunities for advancement.
As an example, he recalled an incident involving Sasun Mikayelyan, after which Mikayelyan was again included on Civil Contract’s election list. Another example, he said, is Vahagn Aleksanyan, who had previously been among the most active participants in brawls and has now even received a higher position.
According to the political analyst, these examples send a clear signal from the ruling elite that such behavior is encouraged rather than condemned. The more actively a government representative takes part in a brawl, the louder they shout and swear, the more likely it is, he argued, that Nikol Pashinyan will view it favorably and give them a higher place on the next election list.
Baghdasaryan’s assessment is that the authorities are thus creating a system in which political loyalty and advancement are linked, in part, to violence and aggressive behavior.
👉 Politics