Over the past 35 years, a consistent pattern has formed in Armenia — parliamentary majorities have never changed through elections and ballot voting. Across eight electoral cycles, the same outcome has been observed, and today, according to political strategist Armen Badalyan, there are additional factors that further reinforce this trend.
Eight elections — the same result
According to Badalyan, a clear electoral pattern operates in Armenia, where the quality of election campaigns has little to no impact on the final outcome. He recalls that the first major elections under a multiparty system took place in 1990, during the final years of Soviet Armenia, when two nearly equal political forces emerged — the Communist Party and the Armenian National Movement. In his assessment, this was an exceptional case where the parliamentary majority effectively changed through voting.
From 1995 onward, however, a different pattern took shape. Badalyan notes that in all subsequent parliamentary elections, the majority was formed around forces that already controlled the executive branch or had its support. He lists the elections of 1999, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2021, emphasizing that even the two exceptional cases — 1999 and 2018 — occurred under conditions where the executive power had already changed, and the parliament merely aligned with that shift.
“If the same result has occurred eight times, the same political picture, why assume the ninth time will be different?” he says, questioning the likelihood of a change of power through elections.
Three key influencing factors
The political strategist notes that free and fair elections are theoretically possible, but require three conditions that are currently absent in Armenia. The first is the political will of the ruling force to conduct such elections. Despite official statements, Badalyan questions its existence, pointing to pressure against opposition figures and evident political persecution that contradict such claims. “Everyone declares a desire for free and fair elections, but real processes today show something entirely different,” he emphasizes.
The second key condition is external pressure — from both Western and Russian centers — that could compel authorities to ensure more transparent elections. However, according to Badalyan, such influence is currently absent. Moreover, he notes that certain external actors appear interested in the reproduction of the current власти and openly express this position.
The third factor is the condition of society. According to the expert, society has weakened over the years in terms of population, political activity, and value system. Badalyan observes that even on sensitive issues, public reaction remains limited, which also affects political processes.
Summarizing, the political strategist returns to the central question: “If the same result has been reproduced for 35 years, and today there are additional factors reinforcing this pattern, why assume that the next elections will produce a different outcome?”