Armenia’s foreign trade turnover in the first eight months of 2025 has sharply declined, recording one of the deepest drops in recent years. According to official data, the total volume decreased by 41.1% compared to the same period last year, amounting to $12.9427 billion. In August alone, the trade turnover was $1.5194 billion, reflecting a 13.8% decrease compared to July and a 33.7% drop compared to August 2024.
Export figures are particularly alarming. Over the first eight months of the year, the volume of exports from Armenia totaled just $5.9 billion, a 48.8% decrease from the same period last year. In August, the export decline continued, falling by 16.5% compared to July and by 40.8% compared to August of the previous year. Imports also declined, reaching $7.9418 billion, a 34.9% reduction compared to the previous year.
Despite the relatively stable exchange rate of the dram (averaging 389.39 dram per dollar for the first eight months of the year and 383.19 dram in August), such a significant drop in foreign trade points to serious structural issues that go beyond mere currency fluctuations.
Main Reasons for the Decline
This level of decline in foreign trade turnover is driven by several factors, the primary one being the sharp reduction in the re-export of precious metals and stones. In recent years, this commodity group had formed a significant share of exports; however, in 2025, re-export volumes have dropped by more than 70%.
This has not only reduced the overall export volume but also negatively impacted industrial production, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and jewelry sectors.
Additionally, several other factors have exacerbated the situation:
- The strengthened dram has reduced the competitiveness of exported goods. The appreciation of the dram against the U.S. dollar, especially compared to the Russian ruble, has hindered the competitiveness of Armenian products in foreign markets.
- Economic challenges in Russia and Western sanctions have limited trade opportunities. Given that Armenia continues to maintain deep economic ties with Russia, the latter’s economic instability and restricted demand have directly affected Armenian exports.
- The decline in production and processing sectors, along with reduced trade with Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) markets, has further lowered export figures.
- The reduction in imports, in turn, is linked to a decline in domestic consumption and the broader economic slowdown.
Re-Export as a Lost Driver
In recent years, re-export—particularly of precious metals and jewelry—has been one of the main drivers of export revenues. However, in 2025, this factor has almost entirely disappeared. The decline in re-export has not only neutralized some growth in domestic production but also exposed the structural vulnerability of the economy, which relies heavily on one or two export directions.