Political analyst Vigen Hakobyan argues that the opposition must enter the 2026 elections with as few but as strong columns as possible.
Vote fragmentation remains the ruling party’s strongest tool.
Lessons must be learned — and they are simple
According to Hakobyan, after every election we hear the same phrase: the opposition must learn lessons. But these lessons require not complex engineering, but basic arithmetic:
“It was clear then and remains clear now: the biggest issue is running with as few columns as possible. Only forces that realistically assess their resources and can achieve results should participate. Those who join the race by the Olympic principle — participation for the sake of participation — are effectively working for the government.”
He reminds that many opposition parties in recent elections failed to cross the threshold. Their votes mechanically strengthened the ruling force.
The key condition for 2026: 3–4 effective columns
A single nationwide opposition bloc is no longer realistic. The field is multipolar and will remain so.
But this does not mean 10–14 competing groups.
“We need 3–4 strong columns with real resources and the potential to gather high percentages, enter parliament and form a post-election coalition.”
In Hakobyan’s view, the ruling party’s victory in Vagharshapat happened not because of strength, but because the opposition was fragmented.
Even with administrative resources, the government gained only 48.5% — a sign of weakness ahead of 2026.
Rural communities are no longer a guaranteed resource
Historically, rural areas supported the ruling power, whoever it was.
But several new opposition forces now have real potential to break this tradition.
“There are groups with strong rural networks that can bring real competition into a field traditionally dominated by the government.”
He warns that the authorities may resort to administrative or even repressive methods:
“There are already hints that some groups may be blocked from registration. If new forces fight seriously in the villages, this will become a major headache for the government — and it may use Moldova-style tactics.”