For decades, Israel’s position on the recognition of the Armenian Genocide remained largely unchanged. Pragmatic geopolitical calculations and Turkey’s status as Israel’s principal Muslim regional partner led successive Israeli governments either to reject or indefinitely postpone recognition efforts. However, a fundamentally different geopolitical scenario is now unfolding in the Middle East.
The Israeli government’s recent move toward recognizing the Armenian Genocide, which now awaits final approval by the Knesset, has prompted experts to speak of tectonic shifts in regional politics. Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan explains what lies behind this decision.
According to Safrastyan, Israel’s renewed consideration of Armenian Genocide recognition is driven not only by the unprecedented deterioration of relations with Turkey but also by emerging geopolitical realities across the Middle East. He argues that the process should be viewed simultaneously through several different lenses.
Armenian Genocide Recognition Has Become a Political Instrument
From a political perspective, Safrastyan argues, Israel is seeking to respond to Turkey’s increasingly harsh anti-Israeli rhetoric in recent years. In this context, the issue of Armenian Genocide recognition has become an instrument of political influence through which Israel counters Ankara’s public accusations.
However, according to Safrastyan, the underlying dynamics run much deeper. He notes that the Middle East has entered a period of uncertainty characterized by rapidly evolving geopolitical developments. It is possible that US influence in the region may decline in the future, creating a power vacuum that major regional actors are already competing to fill.
Israel and Turkey Are Competing for Regional Leadership
“Under these circumstances, both Israel and Turkey have ambitions for regional leadership. Israel relies on its unprecedented military capabilities, while Turkey is rapidly modernizing its armed forces and seeking to expand its influence throughout the Middle East. Geopolitical competition between these two centers of power is gradually intensifying,” Safrastyan says.
According to him, analytical circles have already begun discussing even remote but theoretically possible scenarios of military confrontation between Turkey and Israel. The primary sources of such risks are conflicting interests in Syria and broader geopolitical competition.
Israel Does Not Expect Significant Losses From Further Deterioration
Safrastyan believes that Israel’s move toward recognizing the Armenian Genocide is unlikely to alter Turkey’s behavior. However, it will provide an additional argument in Israel’s political and informational strategy.
He argues that relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv have already deteriorated to such an extent that Israel no longer expects substantial additional losses from further escalation.
Turkey and Azerbaijan Reacted More Moderately Than Expected
Commenting on Turkey’s response, Safrastyan noted that it was relatively restrained. According to him, official Turkish statements largely avoided the harsh denialist language traditionally used regarding the Armenian Genocide issue. Instead, the primary focus of criticism was directed at Israel itself.
Azerbaijan’s reaction was also milder than expected. Safrastyan does not anticipate that Baku will adopt significantly tougher measures in the future.
He noted that reports have circulated suggesting that Israel may have informed Azerbaijan about the initiative before its public announcement. Although these reports remain unconfirmed, if accurate, they demonstrate Azerbaijan’s importance within Israel’s broader strategic calculations.
Azerbaijan Remains a Key Strategic Partner for Israel
According to Safrastyan, Azerbaijan’s importance for Israel is primarily linked to strategic calculations regarding Iran and regional security.
Energy cooperation also plays a significant role. Azerbaijani oil is transported through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port and subsequently exported to Israel.
“For this reason, Israel is interested in maintaining the highest possible level of relations with Azerbaijan. On the one hand, it counters Turkey rhetorically, while on the other hand, it seeks to avoid damaging its strategic partnership with Baku,” Safrastyan concludes.