If Armenia’s parliamentary elections were held tomorrow, voter turnout would likely be low. According to political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan, this would strengthen the position of the ruling Civil Contract party and increase its chances of securing an absolute majority in parliament.
Turnout as the key factor
Iskandaryan believes that the main factor influencing the election results will not be the struggle between political forces but rather the level of voter participation.
According to him, public turnout will determine the composition of the future parliament.
“In the elections ahead of us, the only real question is whether turnout will be high or low,” Iskandaryan stated.
In his assessment, low turnout would “most likely lead to a victory for the ruling force,” while higher participation could theoretically produce a different political outcome.
The political analyst stressed that many voters fail to realize that refusing to participate in elections effectively benefits the ruling party.
“By not going to vote, you are still voting — you are voting in favor of the ruling party,” he emphasized.
Iskandaryan explained that every government always has a stable base of supporters — people who vote for the current leadership in the name of stability.
Even a relatively low level of support for the ruling force may be sufficient to maintain dominance if turnout remains low.
“13–14% of the total number of eligible voters, under conditions of 40% turnout, already amounts to more than one-third,” he explained.
Votes for non-viable parties also help the authorities
According to Iskandaryan, support for political forces that fail to pass the electoral threshold also works in favor of the ruling party.
He recalled that votes cast for parties that do not enter parliament are later redistributed among those that do pass the threshold.
The party receiving the largest number of votes benefits the most from this mechanism.
“Accordingly, your vote ultimately goes to the party that received the most votes overall,” the political analyst explained.
Political apathy remains strong
Iskandaryan expects voter turnout to remain around 40–50%.
He argued that Armenia continues to experience a high level of political apathy, which he considers one of the defining characteristics of the country’s current political environment.
“The main political idea in today’s Armenia is called apathy,” he stated.
According to him, a significant portion of citizens see no point in participating in elections, which directly affects expected turnout.
At the same time, he believes that the electorate of the Civil Contract party and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan remains relatively mobilized and is highly likely to participate in the elections.
Meanwhile, many citizens who hold negative views toward the authorities still do not see a political force they are willing to support.
“They do not like Pashinyan, but they are not sympathetic toward the others either. As a result, they will either stay home or vote for some exotic groups,” Iskandaryan concluded.