If the TRIPP project is realized, it will not lead to a full opening of borders but will instead become a new form of blockade. This opinion was expressed by political scientist Sergey Melkonyan.
“When we discuss with our foreign colleagues, we always raise the issue of opening other communication routes in the region. We have at least five important routes: the road through Karvachar, the road through Berdzor, and the road through Nakhichevan. Additionally, there are at least two railway lines that Azerbaijan could open. We are talking about the Ijevan-Agstafa and Yerasakh-Nakhichevan railways. Launching these railway sections would take only six months—there are no issues there, and there’s no need to build tens of kilometers of tracks. Therefore, when it comes to developing connections between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Europe, and the Middle East, we always emphasize that ready-made communication routes already exist. Armenia could access the Caspian Sea via the Ijevan railway and the Persian Gulf via Nakhichevan, while Azerbaijan could gain additional connections,” he noted.
Melkonyan added that the issue of opening these roads could be resolved much faster than the implementation of TRIPP. “TRIPP will require all agreements to be ratified by domestic legislation and conditions to be coordinated with Azerbaijan—this is also a key point. Azerbaijan may reject certain clauses, as we know that Armenia and the United States must first reach an agreement, then Azerbaijan must either agree or not, and only then can construction begin. At the moment, no one is ready to allocate funds for TRIPP construction until Azerbaijan gives its consent,” he said.
According to Melkonyan, TRIPP has three levels. The first is domestic: connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan. The second is interstate: linking Azerbaijan with Turkey. The third is global: connecting Central Asia with Europe, bypassing Iran and Russia. “Everyone understands that Azerbaijan and Turkey will primarily benefit, and if the conditions do not suit Azerbaijan, it will either not use this corridor or seize it and impose its own terms,” he explained.
“When we talk about other communication routes related to Armenia, we see that no one is ready to discuss them. This means that if TRIPP is opened, we have no serious guarantees of deblockade. At the very least, we have received no signals that with the opening of TRIPP, the next day or even the same day, we will get an unimpeded road through Nakhichevan. The issue of granting Armenia unimpeded access is not even on the agenda. The only thing being discussed is whether Azerbaijan will open other communication routes for us,” he noted.
Melkonyan is convinced that for external actors, the main goal is not resolving narrow regional issues but bypassing Iran and Russia. “It is also clear that if Azerbaijan demands an unimpeded road, it means they want to create a ‘grey zone’—a territory with an unclear status that is minimally controlled or not controlled at all, which provides opportunities to use this communication route for other purposes,” the expert emphasizes.
If TRIPP is implemented, Melkonyan continues, a new form of blockade may come into effect. “With Turkey, there may be a partially open border—the border will be open for citizens of third countries, and Azerbaijan may operate on the same principle. But this does not mean that all communication routes will be open for Armenia,” Melkonyan believes.