Recently, the U.S. ambassador stated in an interview that Turkey plays a key role in what is referred to as the “Trump track.” At the same time, Mikhail Kalugin, head of the Fourth CIS Department of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, said that Moscow is ready to hold consultations with Yerevan on launching this track and on Russia’s possible involvement.
Taken together, these statements suggest that Russia, despite its outward restraint, is seeking to preserve a certain level of influence in the region.
“The Elephant and the Mosquito”: Armenia’s Place on Russia’s Agenda
According to political analyst Suren Zolyan, the narrative circulating in Armenia about Russia preparing hybrid actions against the country does not reflect reality. In his view, Russia is currently more indifferent than aggressive.
“Some people believe that after the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will fully return to the South Caucasus. In reality, this is not happening,” the analyst notes.
He argues that, if assessed seriously, Armenia does not pose a significant challenge for Russia today. Nor is it capable of doing so. Zolyan points out that Moscow could easily activate pressure mechanisms if it wished. These could involve the economy, trade, or migration. Examples range from phytosanitary inspections to restrictions related to brandy quality.
However, Moscow is demonstrating restraint that borders on indifference. Zolyan notes that a planned visit to Armenia by Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk was cancelled amid intergovernmental disagreements. Even in this case, Russia avoided sharp moves.
He also emphasizes that Moscow does not interfere even when discussions about “Russian agents” intensify in Armenia. “We see that there has been no official demarche, even regarding specific individuals,” he says.
Russia Is Not Leaving, but It Is Not Advancing
Zolyan believes that Russia does not want to “let go” of Armenia. At the same time, it is not taking active political steps. Moscow is maintaining the status quo and limiting itself to formal statements.
According to the analyst, this approach stems from the fact that Russia does not see forces in Armenia it can rely on. Nor does it see partners with whom it can conduct a serious political dialogue.
“We often say that everyone around us is an enemy — Russia, the United States. In reality, everything depends on how we position ourselves,” Zolyan concludes.