There will be no large-scale war or serious escalation in 2026. This was stated by conflict expert Artur Martirosyan.
Commenting on the results of the Washington meeting and subsequent developments, he noted that it is not difficult to see what preferences the Azerbaijani side gained, yet it is extremely hard to determine what Armenia can claim as an achievement. “The authorities declare that peace has been achieved. But at the same time, they themselves admit that no agreement can ultimately stop a war. I agree with this — history offers numerous precedents proving the truth of this statement,” the expert said.
Nevertheless, Martirosyan expressed confidence that next year there will be no large-scale war or serious escalation. However, he stressed this would only be a temporary phenomenon, and by no means signify the achievement of peace.
“Today, while Aliyev speaks of peace, he is demonstratively arming his country. Some say Azerbaijan is arming itself against Russia or Iran, but that is nonsense. He is shifting the balance of power, doing so in order to exploit the situation at a convenient moment,” he said, adding that during the 44-day war the U.S. was in the midst of elections. In 2028, U.S. elections will again take place, which could also become a dangerous period in terms of possible aggression against Armenia. “I am not saying this will necessarily happen, I am only pointing out potentially dangerous periods,” he concluded.