The initiatives of the Civil Contract (CC) party are aimed at weakening Armenia’s armed forces. The reduction of mandatory military service, cuts in defense spending, and the de facto “dismantling” of the military industry should be viewed in the context of demands from Azerbaijan and Turkey. This opinion was expressed by Avetik Kerobyan, former head of the Republic of Armenia’s Military Industry Committee.
Government Actions: Weakening the Army or Resource Shortages?
Kerobyan noted that the legislative initiatives proposed by CC, particularly the proposal to shorten mandatory military service by six months, can be viewed through two main lenses. The first is the fulfillment of demands from Azerbaijan and Turkey, which, according to him, include Armenia’s demilitarization, reduction of armed forces, and destruction of the military industry. “We know that, beyond the 17 points of the so-called ‘peace treaty,’ there are other conditions periodically revealed by Aliyev or his aides. These include diminishing the role of the armed forces, surrendering or exporting weapons and ammunition, for example, to Ukraine,” Kerobyan said.
The second lens, in his view, is tied to pre-election strategy. “The proposal to shorten service terms is also a ‘pre-election trick.’ The promise to reduce conscription terms applies to the next draft, which will take place under the next government. This means the current authorities are creating problems for future governments,” he stated.
Failed Attempt to Allow Exemption from Service for Payment
Kerobyan recalled CC’s proposed legislative initiative to allow exemption from military service through payment, which “disgracefully failed” in the National Assembly. According to him, the initiative was withdrawn due to significant public discontent, as it could have deepened social injustice and led to the “stratification” of society. “The authorities thought that ‘mothers who lost sons’ or ‘mothers unwilling to send their sons to the army’ would champion this initiative, but the opposite happened. The public revolted because it would have exacerbated inequality and eradicated the last traces of societal solidarity,” Kerobyan said. He also noted that even within CC, opinions were divided, which ultimately led to the initiative’s failure.
Risks of Weakening the Armed Forces
In Kerobyan’s opinion, reducing the term of military service without establishing an adequate security system will lead to a decline in the army’s combat readiness. He also questioned the authorities’ confidence that Azerbaijan would refrain from military aggression. “‘Having Trump’s WhatsApp number is no guarantee.’ In the fall of 2020, when Donald Trump was the U.S. president, Azerbaijan and Turkey launched a large-scale aggression against Artsakh and Armenia, emerging victorious ‘with bloodied hands but coming out unscathed,’” Kerobyan reminded.
The Path to Peace Without Concessions
Kerobyan emphasized that peace cannot be achieved through unilateral concessions. According to him, achieving peace involves creating military and politico-military alliances, engaging allies, and strengthening the security system. “Peace is achieved through our own potential, the diaspora, a professional and well-equipped army, an active reserve, and a system of territorial defense forces. This can also involve foreigners performing logistical tasks,” he noted.
He believes that reducing the term of service can only be a consequence, not a goal. “If an effective security system is established, shortening the service term is possible. But without it, we will have a less combat-ready army, security risks, and remain defenseless in the face of military aggression,” Kerobyan concluded.