The peace plan proposed by Donald Trump regarding the war in Ukraine remains in the international spotlight. Despite high expectations, deep contradictions prevent the initiative from being viewed as a realistic solution. Former Foreign Minister of the Republic of Artsakh, diplomat Arman Melikyan, emphasizes that even if certain agreements are reached, geopolitical tensions and the clash of major powers will continue to determine developments. According to him, the South Caucasus faces new and more dangerous challenges that are not directly linked to Ukraine.
Trump’s Mediation Attempt Lacks a Real Prospect of Success
Melikyan notes that although Trump expressed hope for a possible meeting with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the political conditions do not suggest that such negotiations could begin soon.
“Russia and Ukraine will not sit at the same table quickly. Even if initial understanding is reached on some issues, the conflict is too complex and involves too many actors for the Washington–Moscow–Kyiv triangle to produce a real solution.”
He is convinced that due to conflicting interests among global power centers, even if the initiative is welcomed publicly, no party will be genuinely interested in implementing it.
The South Caucasus as Part of a Broader Geopolitical Framework
Melikyan stresses that developments in Ukraine will not be decisive for the processes unfolding in the South Caucasus.
“Events in our region will continue regardless of whether peace is established in Ukraine.”
He highlights that the main factor in the coming period will be the next wave of pressure forming around Iran.
Rising Tensions Around Iran and Regional Implications
Melikyan explains that Israel is interested in increasing pressure on Iran, including the possibility of using force. Azerbaijan is rapidly expanding its military capabilities, and this trend is difficult to separate from the broader Iran-related context.
In this environment, the South Caucasus, the Ukrainian front, the Middle East and Central Asia become interconnected components of a larger geopolitical project that can be activated or frozen independently.
Weakening Iran as a Tool to Limit China’s Influence
According to the diplomat, weakening Iran would also reduce China’s regional leverage.
“The developments will focus on weakening Iran, but this also means reducing China’s influence — not only in Iran or the Persian Gulf, but across the entire region, including the Middle East, Central Asia and the South Caucasus.”