The new security environment emerging in the region today demands careful and sober analysis. Azerbaijan’s accelerated militarization and its open, institutionalized military alliance with Turkey raise serious questions about regional stability and Armenia’s security. Political analyst Stepan Danielyan shared his assessment of the situation.
Azerbaijan’s “defensive” dilemma and conflicting commitments
Danielyan suggests viewing Azerbaijan’s recent actions from a different perspective. In his view, the issue is not primarily about offensive ambitions. Rather, it concerns security and defense challenges that Baku may face after the war in Ukraine comes to an end.
He recalls the Shusha Declaration, under which Azerbaijan and Turkey, particularly Ankara, committed to providing military assistance to each other in the event of external aggression. However, Danielyan points to a significant contradiction.
On February 22, 2022, just two days before the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, Russia and Azerbaijan signed an agreement. One of its key provisions stipulates that Azerbaijan will not allow the deployment of military forces from third countries on its territory if those countries have hostile relations or intentions toward Russia.
The Caspian basin factor
Danielyan also refers to the agreement signed on June 29, 2022, by the five Caspian littoral states. This treaty likewise restricts the military presence of third countries in the Caspian region.
According to him, if Turkish military units are indeed present in Azerbaijan, as some assessments suggest, even at an unofficial level, this could be interpreted as a violation of these agreements. The risk becomes greater if relations between Turkey and Russia or Iran enter a hostile phase.
He notes that influential Turkish think tanks, closely linked to state and security institutions, are actively developing future conflict scenarios. Among them, a potential war between Turkey and Iran is considered the most likely.
Azerbaijan as a potential new flashpoint
In this context, Azerbaijan finds itself in a difficult position. On the one hand, it is bound by the Shusha Declaration. On the other, it is constrained by agreements signed with Russia.
“These arrangements in the Caspian basin could lead to extremely serious problems,” Danielyan emphasizes. He adds that both Russian and international expert circles increasingly voice the view that, in the future, Azerbaijan could become the “next Ukraine,” figuratively speaking.