Developments unfolding around Iran are becoming increasingly dangerous and unpredictable. According to political commentators and analysts, the situation is approaching a point at which any misstep could trigger a large-scale regional war, with severe consequences for the entire Middle East and the South Caucasus.
Political commentator Armen Ayvazyan says recent developments deserve particular attention. He points, in particular, to a highly significant statement by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who stressed that Iran would respond with full force to any strike directed against it. Khamenei warned that in such a scenario military actions would inevitably spread across the entire region.
Not only military targets in the crosshairs
“Clarifying this statement, Iranian officials and experts have openly indicated that Iran’s retaliatory actions would not be limited solely to American or Israeli military targets. According to these assessments, Tehran could attempt to paralyze oil and gas exports from the region by striking relevant infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and in Azerbaijan,” Ayvazyan notes.
He adds that in this context particular attention should be paid to a statement by prominent Iranian analyst, Tehran University professor Mohammad Marandi. Marandi, who in the West is often regarded as a mouthpiece of Iran’s power structures, stated explicitly that, if necessary, Iran could “wipe out” the regime of Ilham Aliyev.
A war that cannot bypass Armenia
In Ayvazyan’s view, these developments point not to yet another bout of tension, but to a real danger of a major regional war. In his assessment, such a scenario cannot fail to affect Armenia and cannot simply “pass by” the country.
“The consequences could be fatal not only for the entire region, but especially for Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the political scientist emphasizes, noting that in such circumstances the South Caucasus becomes an area directly adjacent to a major conflict.
What is Armenia doing amid this backdrop?
Against this backdrop, Armen Ayvazyan sharply criticizes the behavior of Armenia’s authorities. According to him, at a moment when the region is facing the risk of a systemic collapse of the security architecture, the priorities of the country’s leadership clearly do not align with the national security agenda.
The political scientist notes that the public observes the head of government’s public behavior—singing, dancing, demonstrative activity—while the entire security system, in his words, is effectively engaged in actions against the Armenian clergy. Ayvazyan describes this situation as a dangerous and unacceptable example of state governance.
At the same time, he does not rule out the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump may abandon plans to strike Iran. Such a move, he says, would be the most reasonable and responsible course of action.
However, as Ayvazyan stresses, a state’s security cannot be built on such hopes.
“One can never govern a country or ensure national security based on hope alone,” he concludes, arguing that Armenia needs a sober, calculated, institutional, and long-term security policy rather than situational expectations.