The prospect of a change of power in Armenia’s domestic political landscape has long moved beyond the logic of classical electoral processes. This view is shared by political analyst Alen Gevondyan. According to him, if the opposition truly aims to win, it must first accept a bitter but realistic truth: power in Armenia will not change through elections.
According to the political analyst, this assessment is driven not only by the behavior of the current authorities, but also by deeper political, security-related, and external interests that are directly uninterested in a change of power in Armenia.
The Authorities Know What Awaits Them
In Gevondyan’s assessment, the current authorities and the circles surrounding them clearly understand the responsibility they would face if they were to lose power. This is not about political responsibility, but criminal liability.
It is precisely this awareness, he says, that makes the authorities more rigid, self-protective, and ready to resort to any means. Under such conditions, the authorities cannot afford defeat, regardless of electoral or social processes.
The political analyst notes that not only internal resources but also external stakeholders play a key role in maintaining power. According to Gevondyan, a change of power in Armenia is an unacceptable scenario for both Turkey and Azerbaijan.
He argues that to prevent such a change, all possible diversionary tools will be employed — from provoking civil clashes to information and psychological pressure. In this context, he draws attention to an important fact: there are Azerbaijani operatives in Armenia who speak Armenian, and their number, according to him, is “very, very large.”
The Solution: Full Mobilization of the Opposition
In the current situation, Gevondyan sees only one possible solution — the complete mobilization of the opposition. He notes that today the opposition field consists of political forces of different “weight categories”: large, medium, and small.
Especially small, newly formed forces with limited influence but certain resources must abandon their own ambitions and unite without striving for power.
If the goal of any political entity is specifically to come to power, Gevondyan argues, then such actors should either refrain from politics altogether or openly side with the current prime minister.
The political analyst proposes a clear political formula — “consensus minus one.” That is, the entire opposition field must unite around a single objective: removing one individual.
According to him, only in this case will Armenia have a chance to survive as a state, change its position in relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and attempt to defend its interests in international arenas.
Moreover, as Gevondyan formulates it, this is not merely a political issue but an existential one: a change of power is also Armenia’s chance to avoid destruction.
Everyone Must Put What They Have on the Table
Gevondyan emphasizes that opposition mobilization cannot be one-dimensional. Everyone has a role: some contribute ideas, others financial resources, others organizational capacities, others political technologies, and others through networks of trusted representatives. There is simply no alternative, he says.
He proposes inviting representatives of opposition forces to public discussions and asking a direct question: do they understand the seriousness of the situation or not? “This is not a game, and wasting time may become irreversible,” Gevondyan stresses.