In recent months, one of the possible scenarios for a change of power — the impeachment process — has been actively discussed in Armenia’s domestic political life. However, experts do not have a unanimous opinion regarding the effectiveness of this mechanism. Commenting on the political developments, analyst Mihrdat Madatyan presented his views on both the actions of the opposition and the issue of political responsibility.
The “street” is necessary before elections
According to Madatyan, public activism and even popular protests ahead of elections are a natural part of the political process. In his words, the street should “support the elections,” ensuring the logical development of political processes.
At the same time, the expert notes that he personally has never considered impeachment a realistic political solution. According to him, the promises made around this idea have not been fulfilled so far. Madatyan recalls that the initiators of the impeachment process had stated that members of parliament would soon switch to their side, yet time has passed and no such developments have taken place.
The initiator must bear responsibility
The expert also addressed discussions within the opposition, particularly the question of why certain forces demand support from other political factions. According to him, the current situation sometimes resembles a figurative example: “someone wants to hold a wedding but expects others to set the table, bring the bride and groom from their own house, and even provide a gift.”
Madatyan believes that when it comes to a political initiative, responsibility should lie with the initiator. In his view, asking for support and shifting the entire responsibility onto other political forces are two different things. One may support an initiative, but that does not mean others should take responsibility for implementing it.
Chances of impeachment success
Madatyan gives a rather strict assessment of the chances of a successful impeachment. According to him, the probability of its success “cannot be considered higher than zero.”
He explains that persuading the ruling force is an extremely difficult task. In his opinion, people who are already involved in power rarely act against their own team. Madatyan even refers to the well-known phrase that “the most dangerous animal in the world is a cornered rat,” emphasizing that under pressure authorities tend to act more defensively and cohesively.
A risky strategy for the opposition
The expert also warns that placing excessive hopes on impeachment may backfire on the opposition itself. According to him, if political strategy is built solely around this scenario, its failure could become a kind of “obituary” for the opposition.
In his assessment, if there were even a small real chance for impeachment, the first signs of it would already have appeared in recent months. Madatyan suggests a simple benchmark: if the initiators had managed to bring at least five deputies from the ruling faction to their side, the remaining issues could have been addressed during the political process. However, according to him, no such steps have been taken.