Although the Civil Contract party achieved a convincing victory in the parliamentary elections, its position in the new parliament will be weaker than it was in the previous National Assembly. This assessment was offered by political analyst Tigran Grigoryan. According to him, the ruling party’s representation will decline, while the opposition will gain a stronger presence. At the same time, the future political balance will largely depend on whether Prosperous Armenia, led by Gagik Tsarukyan, succeeds in crossing the parliamentary threshold.
A Few Seats Could Shape the Political Landscape
Grigoryan noted that if Prosperous Armenia fails to enter parliament, the ruling party would receive three additional mandates and retain three-fifths of the seats.
In that scenario, the government would maintain broad powers, including the ability to appoint and dismiss key officials.
For this reason, he argues that the final vote count and seat distribution remain critically important, as even a small number of votes could influence Armenia’s political future.
Rejecting Mandates Would Change Nothing
Commenting on proposals from some opposition circles to refuse parliamentary mandates, Grigoryan described the idea as illogical.
According to him, such a move would not alter the composition of parliament. The legislature would continue functioning, and the ruling party would remain in power.
He also expressed skepticism that such a step would create a serious legitimacy crisis for the government.
Constitutional Majority Is No Longer Guaranteed
Even if Prosperous Armenia remains outside parliament, the opposition is expected to secure a substantial presence.
The most significant consequence, according to Grigoryan, is that the ruling party will no longer possess a constitutional majority.
As a result, it will be unable to independently initiate and pass a constitutional referendum, an issue that government representatives have repeatedly discussed over the past year.
September War Claims Were Politically Motivated
The analyst recalled that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had suggested during the campaign that the absence of a constitutional majority could increase the risk of a new war in September.
Grigoryan believes those statements were primarily aimed at domestic political audiences.
“Naturally, there will be no war or escalation in September. However, losing a constitutional majority may affect Armenia’s foreign policy processes,” he stated.
Politics Is Becoming Increasingly Resource-Driven
Grigoryan also highlighted what he described as the growing importance of financial and administrative resources in Armenian politics.
According to his assessment, only political forces with substantial resources were able to seriously compete for parliamentary seats.
For the ruling party, this included both administrative and financial advantages, while opposition forces primarily relied on financial resources.
Polarization Will Continue
The analyst considers this trend troubling because it suggests that the same political actors will continue dominating Armenia’s political system.
From a democratic perspective, he argues, the absence of a credible pro-democracy alternative between the government and the traditional opposition remains a major challenge.
“If such an alternative does not emerge, the polarized politics that has characterized Armenia in recent years will continue to dominate the country’s political life,” Grigoryan concluded.