Several key areas of Armenia’s economic security — from energy to financial and food security — remain closely connected to relations with Russia and the framework created within the Eurasian Economic Union. This was stated by Doctor of Economics Tatur Manaseryan.
According to him, a significant part of Armenia’s banking system is linked to Russian capital, while the country also remains heavily dependent on Russia for food security.
Manaseryan noted that for many years, most of Armenia’s food imports came from Russia, while one of the most recent major supplies came from Kazakhstan, which is also an EAEU member state.
EAEU Cooperation Has Created Economic Opportunities
The economist argued that cooperation with Russia and Armenia’s other EAEU partners has provided the country with broad economic opportunities, something he says is reflected in statistical data.
“Agricultural exports to the Russian Federation alone, without even considering the wider Eurasian market, exceed $700 million. Foreign trade has increased almost fifteenfold over ten years,” he said.
For this reason, Manaseryan believes any foreign policy decision must also take these economic realities into account.
“Foreign policy choices must consider their economic consequences as well,” he said.
According to the economist, if Armenia regards one partner as politically preferable, it must first calculate whether that choice is consistent with the country’s national and state interests.
“We need to make calculations and understand how beneficial this is for the Republic of Armenia and whether the statements being made, for example about the European Union, correspond to our state and national interests,” Manaseryan said.
EU Membership Prospects Must Be Assessed Through Their Consequences
Manaseryan argues that Armenia should conduct a much more detailed assessment of the possible economic and political consequences of pursuing European Union membership.
He also believes Yerevan should take into account that, as he put it, “to put it mildly, nobody is waiting for Armenia” in the EU.
Against this background, the economist said he does not understand the rushed adoption of Armenia’s law concerning the process of joining the European Union.
“None of the 27 EU member states adopted a law on joining the European Union. Even the 15 founding members adopted no such law. Why did the Republic of Armenia need to rush, draft such a bill with the support of certain groups and quickly push it through the National Assembly?” he said.
Political Decisions Must Be Measured by Their Economic Cost
According to Manaseryan, any political decision should be assessed not only for its symbolic importance but also for its practical results.
“At some point, we must learn to weigh the economic and political cost of every law. We need to understand what we will actually gain economically after adopting it,” he said.
In practical terms, Manaseryan argued, the adoption of the law did nothing to improve Armenia’s prospects of EU membership while worsening relations with its EAEU partners.
“Provoking tensions and becoming hostile toward the Russian Federation is undesirable even for many Western countries,” he said.
Armenia Needs Real Energy Alternatives
Instead of adopting laws that, in his view, lead nowhere, Armenia should focus on developing alternative options, particularly in the field of energy security.
Manaseryan highlighted increased gas imports from Iran as one such possibility.
“No one has prevented Armenia’s current authorities from negotiating and seeking alternatives. We already have a pipeline for importing gas from Iran, and we should be much more active in developing this direction,” he said.
According to the economist, Armenia must continue addressing its economic and energy security even if lasting peace is established in the region.
“Because of deteriorating relations with another country, for example Georgia, or because of natural disasters, Armenia could lose access to gas supplies. During the years of independence, there have been many occasions when gas deliveries were interrupted for different reasons,” he said.
Economic Strategy Must Be Based on National Interests
Manaseryan believes the Armenian government should make greater use of both domestic expertise and the professional potential of the diaspora when developing economic strategies.
“I would place national and state interests at the foundation of everything, and today those interests are simply not clearly defined. They must be formulated so that not only decision-makers but also experts understand what our collective work is intended to achieve,” Tatur Manaseryan concluded.