Discussions about the possible withdrawal of the Russian military base from Armenia must be taken out of the realm of emotional and political statements and considered within the framework of Armenia’s entire security system. Political analyst Davit Karapetyan said this.
Karapetyan stressed that Armenia must first clearly understand what function the Russian presence currently performs, what will happen in its absence and whether the Armenian side has the capacity to fill the resulting gap. According to him, if these discussions are not supported by clear calculations, definite answers to the questions above and a concrete plan, statements about the military base’s withdrawal become nothing more than a “political smokescreen.”
Karapetyan believes that the issue should not be considered from the perspective of whether the presence of Russian military personnel in Armenia is desirable. Instead, the focus should be on the function the military base performs in practice, including its political significance.
According to him, the presence of the 102nd Russian Military Base has a clear legal and contractual foundation, but its political significance extends beyond this. It is located in a sensitive area for Armenia—along the Armenian-Turkish border. Its presence should therefore be assessed primarily in terms of possible military threats along that border.
In other words, a political statement about withdrawing the military base does not resolve anything by itself. If the Russian armed forces leave, the security mechanism that their presence previously provided must also be replaced.
According to Karapetyan, this is where the main problem arises. Armenia would have to do more than merely deploy soldiers along the border. It would have to create an entirely new defence system, carry out fortification and engineering work, ensure a permanent military presence, provide sufficient weaponry and develop the capacity to withstand possible military scenarios.
Karapetyan believes that Armenia must be able to defend the Armenian-Turkish border independently, even if the threat of large-scale military action emerges.
Is Armenia currently prepared to respond to such threats, the expert asks, recalling Turkey’s actions in northern Syria. He argues that such scenarios are not merely theoretical exercises. Consequently, any decision to end the Russian presence must be based not on political preferences but on an assessment of Armenia’s ability to confront such a threat using its own resources.
Moreover, ending the Russian military presence cannot be limited to the territory of the 102nd Military Base. The Erebuni Air Base, other infrastructure and military units are also connected to it.
Therefore, if the discussion genuinely concerns a complete withdrawal, a significant part of Armenia’s security system would have to be transformed.