A statement by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during discussions of the 2027 state budget has prompted renewed debate about the complete withdrawal of Russian border guards from Armenia and the establishment of Armenian control over the country’s borders. According to the statement, the process is planned for at least the medium term.
Military expert Leonid Nersisyan says the actual timetable for the withdrawal depends on Armenia’s ability to perform border guard duties independently.
According to Nersisyan, Armenia must first be able to establish full control with its own border guard forces along the borders with Turkey and Iran, where Russian border guards are still serving.
These are fairly long borders, he says, and assuming full control would require thousands of trained border guards. The expert considers two to four years a realistic timeframe for the process, while stressing that the border section with Azerbaijan is a separate issue.
He singles out the Azerbaijani border section, saying that the withdrawal of Russian border guards there can be discussed after border delimitation has been carried out. In his view, delimitation will be a lengthy process. He sees no progress in that direction so far, and says it would take years even if positive developments occur.
What matters, Nersisyan says, is that the process is already under way. He recalls that Russian border guards began leaving certain sections earlier and that Armenian border guards are now serving at those positions.
The expert believes the withdrawal could help Armenia develop its relations with the West. In particular, he says, it could matter for visa liberalization with the European Union.
Nersisyan also considers the withdrawal potentially important to the EU visa liberalization process. Although it has not been a mandatory condition, he believes it would have been difficult to make progress in that direction without fully resolving the issue.
Taking over border control is also important for Armenia’s economic independence and its ability to make sovereign decisions, he says. The expert emphasizes that the presence of Armenian border guards at crossing points already allows Armenia to decide independently how and when various goods enter the country.
“At least we can decide how and when certain kinds of goods, for example, should enter Armenia and not share that information with another state. That is a fairly important factor,” he said.
In Nersisyan’s assessment, the central importance of this process is that Armenia can control its borders independently and make the decisions concerning them.
“Most importantly, we should be the masters of our own country,” the military expert concluded.
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