Russia does not want Armenia to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), political analyst Stepan Grigoryan says.
Discussing Armenia’s position on the CSTO and the steps the organization might take, Grigoryan noted that Armenia effectively takes no part in its activities and pays no membership dues. He said Armenia would continue to stay out of all CSTO activities as long as Civil Contract holds the governing majority.
According to Grigoryan, Article 27 of the CSTO Charter provides for sanctions in such cases. He said member states must agree by consensus on whether to impose restrictions on Armenia, including the loss of its voting rights. He added that Article 20 governs the termination of membership. In his view, Russia has opted for interim measures because it wants Armenia to remain in the organization.
“I get the sense that they don’t want Armenia to leave. It’s a political issue and a matter of reputation. The CSTO is already a very small organization. Countries are lining up to join NATO, while the CSTO has only six members. Losing Armenia under these circumstances would be a problem for them. They would also lose the entire South Caucasus that way,” the analyst said.
In Grigoryan’s view, Moscow says Armenia should leave the organization but does not actually want that to happen. “The Russian side argues that Armenia is trying to shift responsibility for its actions onto Russia. That is exactly what the authorities are doing. But in my view, at some point Armenia needs to leave the organization,” he said.
Grigoryan expects Armenia to lose its voting rights at the CSTO summit on November 11. He added that he would personally consider expulsion preferable to a restriction on Armenia’s voting rights alone.
Grigoryan believes CSTO membership offers Armenia no security guarantees and cannot provide any. He also considers the organization’s position dangerous for Armenia because, in his view, it effectively fails to recognize the country’s territorial integrity.
As an example, he cited Azerbaijan’s incursion into Armenian territory, when Azerbaijani forces advanced several kilometers into the country and reached Jermuk. The CSTO, however, described what happened as a border dispute.
“I want to explain what that means. A border dispute might be over 50 meters one way, five meters the other way, or 15 meters this way. But it cannot be a matter of kilometers. That means they do not recognize our territorial integrity,” Grigoryan said.
Grigoryan reiterated that Armenia should leave the CSTO. He said the organization had done nothing to secure Armenia’s safety and would not do so in the future.
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