Russia benefits from Armenia remaining a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), because losing its strategic positions in the South Caucasus would run counter to Moscow’s interests, international affairs analyst Davit Karapetyan said.
The application of Article 25 of the CSTO Charter to Armenia at Russia’s proposal did not substantially change anything. Karapetyan argues that Armenia effectively does not exercise its rights within the organization: it has no representatives there, does not nominate its citizens for any positions and has no ambition or desire to do so.
“I am more than certain that Russia benefits from and needs Armenia to remain in this organization. I could list many reasons. From a strategic perspective, looking at its entire geopolitical configuration in the South Caucasus and at its national and state interests, Russia does not want to lose its positions.
“Despite the current rift in relations between the two states, they expect to return to the South Caucasus, especially after the culmination of the war with Ukraine, which appears likely to come soon. They therefore need a southern gateway here. Russia does not want to lose its positions,” Karapetyan said.
He said Lavrov’s statement that Moscow would not seek to remove Armenia from the CSTO could also be understood as a signal that there is still room for negotiations. For that reason, Karapetyan believes political pressure is now being applied to create the impression that Armenia could leave the CSTO on its own.
Karapetyan pointed out that, under Article 19 of the CSTO Charter, a country may voluntarily submit an application to a summit to terminate its membership. Armenia, however, has not taken that step, leaving the matter in the hands of the other member states.
Asked whether Armenia needs the CSTO more than the CSTO needs Armenia, Karapetyan said a more concrete question should be discussed instead of answering with grand declarations: is it more dangerous for Armenia to remain a member or to end its membership? “I would say both are dangerous. It is already dangerous, right now, that we continue to remain in the CSTO,” he stressed.
Karapetyan did not rule out several possible developments. Armenia could eventually leave the organization by submitting its own application, he said, but it has not expressed that intention so far. Since February 2024, Armenia has preferred what it calls a “freeze.” In Karapetyan’s assessment, this is neither a political category nor a status provided for in legal relations. Nevertheless, the authorities continue to refer to that approach without taking the final step of ending membership.
In Karapetyan’s view, the issue has long since moved beyond the legal and political spheres and acquired a moral dimension as well, because a public demand is emerging.
Discussing the results of Armenia’s CSTO membership, the analyst said its experience with the organization had made it possible to determine whether the military alliance was viable for Armenia and whether it was prepared to meet its obligations concerning the country’s territorial integrity and the inviolability of its borders.
“The facts showed that it was not. However many counteraccusations were made at the time — that the appeal was submitted incorrectly, that there were technical mistakes and so on — it is clear that those were merely excuses, evasive excuses,” he said. Karapetyan also drew attention to the positions of CSTO member states, noting that some of them would not enter a direct confrontation with Azerbaijan under any circumstances.
“The CSTO includes countries that would in no way enter into a direct confrontation with Azerbaijan. The president of Belarus spoke very frankly on behalf of everyone: if Azerbaijan is involved, any confrontation with it is out of the question.
“Those member states also include the Turkic countries of Central Asia. Overall, all CSTO members have closer relations with Azerbaijan, and each of them has a strategic relationship with it,” the international affairs analyst said.
According to Karapetyan, these circumstances also show that the CSTO has not fulfilled its obligations to Armenia. He believes the main question now is when Armenia will decide to leave the organization. “I think the most welcome step would be to withdraw from the CSTO by submitting our own application,” Karapetyan concluded.
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