A process of forming a new world order has begun, replacing the order established in 1945 on the basis of the Yalta and Potsdam agreements. Ruben Safrastyan, a member of Armenia’s National Academy of Sciences, a doctor of historical sciences, professor and specialist in Turkish studies, said this while discussing the roles of the United States, Russia and China in the reshaping of international relations and the prospect of dividing spheres of influence.
A weaker UN and the dominance of three superpowers
“As I see it, the following is happening in the world: the process of forming a new world order has begun. By a new world order, I mean one that will replace the order established in 1945 on the basis of the Yalta and Potsdam agreements.
“In my view, this new order is already showing its main characteristics. The most important will be the weakening of the UN’s role as an institution that coordinates international relations.
“Second, a period of dominance by two or three powerful superpowers will begin. In this new world order, those states are, first and foremost, the United States of America and Russia, which together possess 83 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. China is also participating in this process to some extent and will continue to do so. In military terms, it is, of course, behind those two superpowers, but it is a superpower in economic and trade terms.
“This new world order, whose first signs we are already seeing, will be based on power. In other words, international relations will be regulated by concrete power, rather than by the UN, which has regulated relations around the world in recent decades. These three states — the superpowers — possess great power, and that power will regulate international relations,” he said.
The superpowers will not merely display their power; they will use it
According to Safrastyan, the superpowers’ power in the new world order will not remain a matter of display. It will be used directly in international relations. He cited the crisis between the United States and Iran and the war between Russia and Ukraine as examples.
“Here, I think we need to draw a deeper conclusion. In my view, that power will not merely be potential. It will be put to use so that it becomes more effective.
“We see this in the crisis involving the United States of America and Iran. We see it in the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. In other words, these two powerful superpowers used force. Why and how they did so is another question.
“I expect China to use force in an issue concerning it in the coming years as well. In this way, all three states will show their power.”
After the use of force, the superpowers will reach an understanding
In the Turkish studies specialist’s assessment, the use of force will be only the first stage in the formation of a new world order. It will be followed by an understanding among the three superpowers, through which international relations will be managed.
“The use of force is, so to speak, the first stage. But in my view, it will be followed by, and combined with, an understanding among those three superpowers.
“International relations will be managed through that understanding. In other words, the three will take on a certain responsibility for maintaining security in the world. That is the second point.”
A division of fields rather than territorial spheres of influence
Addressing the division of spheres of influence, Safrastyan said he did not expect the new world order to produce territorial spheres of influence in the classical sense. He believes the division will concern different fields rather than geographic areas, taking into account technological advances, rapid progress in artificial intelligence and the growing importance of communications.
“I do not think the spheres of influence will be classical spheres of influence. Rather, we can already see the processes taking place in the world in connection with the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the great importance of communications and other factors.
“It will not be a territorial division, but a division of certain fields.
“For example, it is clear that Russia cannot take part in such a division in the field of artificial intelligence. That field will involve the United States of America and China.
“In the military field, I think the division will be between Russia and the United States of America. Thus, this division will be more virtual than a visible territorial division.”
The three superpowers’ responsibility for global security
Safrastyan believes that dividing these fields will also entail responsibility for the three superpowers. He stressed that accumulated power has reached a scale at which its uncontrolled use could destroy the entire planet. Responsibility for global security should therefore rest with those three states, he said.
“The third point, which I think is important, is that this division of fields will create a responsibility for the three powers to take responsibility for the world, because the power accumulated today could destroy planet Earth.
“And that responsibility will rest with the three of them — those three states, the three superpowers.”
The Cold War will finally disappear from international relations
In Safrastyan’s vision, the system associated with the Cold War will also disappear from international relations as the new world order takes shape. He said the Cold War had an ideological basis — the opposition between capitalism and socialism, East and West — that will vanish in the new order.
“In my view, we are already witnessing, and will see even more clearly in the near future, the Cold War and its distinctive features finally disappearing from international relations.
“In other words, the Cold War had an ideological foundation: capitalism, socialism, East, West. I think that will disappear, and there will be a new world, a new world order. That is my vision,” Safrastyan concluded.
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