Russia has for now chosen an intermediate option for resolving the question of Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), political analyst Beniamin Poghosyan said.
According to Poghosyan, Russia had three possible ways to address the situation while Armenia’s membership remained frozen: do nothing and allow its de facto frozen membership to continue, deprive Armenia of its voting rights, or raise the question of expelling it from the CSTO.
In Poghosyan’s assessment, losing voting rights would bring little substantial change in practice, since Armenia has not participated in the organization’s discussions or used its opportunities to take part in decisions in recent years.
“Perhaps we can assume that Armenia would no longer be able, if it wished, to veto a decision, for example. But as far as I know, Armenia has not even attempted to do so in recent years. Therefore, I think nothing will change in practical terms. We will, however, note that Armenia is moving another step closer to the moment when it says goodbye to the CSTO,” he said.
Neither side wants responsibility for Armenia’s departure from the CSTO
Asked why Armenia has not made a final decision and formally withdrawn from the CSTO, the analyst observed that statements by Armenia’s leadership give the impression that Yerevan would prefer the organization itself to initiate that process.
He said Armenia’s leadership has stated several times that it would welcome being removed by the CSTO. The organization, on the other hand, appears unwilling to take responsibility for that step either.
Poghosyan believes both sides may be concerned about possible developments after Armenia’s formal withdrawal from the CSTO and about having to take responsibility for them.
“If Armenia leaves and something then happens, people could say: look, if Armenia had not left, that would not have happened. Conversely, they could tell the CSTO: if you had not expelled Armenia, certain things might not have happened,” the analyst said.
In his assessment, neither side wants to bear full responsibility for the potential consequences of Armenia’s formal departure from the CSTO.
The right to appeal to the CSTO has no practical significance
Commenting on the Russian foreign minister’s statement that Armenia would retain the right to use collective security mechanisms even if it lost its voting rights, Poghosyan said legal provisions must be distinguished from political realities.
Legally, he said, Armenia would retain the option of appealing to the CSTO if it were subjected to aggression, despite losing its vote. The organization’s rules provide for requests for consultations and assistance.
In the analyst’s assessment, however, retaining that right has no practical significance under current conditions. Armenia’s membership has been effectively frozen for more than two and a half years, and the country’s top political leadership has said its interest in the organization has diminished or fallen to zero.
“Even if Armenia needed some kind of support, it is clear that, as things stand, it would not turn to the CSTO,” he said.
Poghosyan assessed the current likelihood of direct military aggression against Armenia or the use of military force as close to zero. Even if such a situation arose, however, he considers it unlikely that Armenia would appeal to the organization, given developments in recent years and its relations with the CSTO.
According to Poghosyan, the Russian foreign minister’s statement essentially records only that Armenia has not yet lost its legal right to use collective security mechanisms.
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