According to official data, Armenia’s economic activity index reached 8.1% in January–October 2025. At first glance, this is a strong and impressive figure. But once we analyze what drives this growth, the picture becomes uneven and vulnerable. This assessment comes from David Ananyan, former head of the State Revenue Committee.
Construction and Services Continue to Hold Up the Economy
Ananyan notes that in the first ten months, construction grew by 20.6%, services (excluding trade) by 10.8%, and trade turnover by 3.2%. These three sectors became the main sources of growth.
At the same time, the industrial sector dropped again — a cumulative decline of 3.0%.
“This means that our real production base continues to weaken,” he said.
The Industrial “Recovery” in October Is a False Signal
Ananyan explained that the October figure — +17.9% year-on-year — looks impressive only on paper. In reality, it comes almost entirely from one subsector: basic metals production. This area still reflects the impact of gold re-export flows.
According to him, this creates the misleading impression that the entire industry is expanding. In many other subsectors, there is either decline or stagnation.
“We have no new industries and no technological expansion. What we see are isolated fluctuations in existing flows,” Ananyan stressed.
The Structure of Growth Does Not Ensure Economic Resilience
“When the foundation of growth lies in short-term, non-export sectors — construction, trade, services — while industry and exports remain weak, such growth cannot be considered sustainable,” he said.
In essence, Armenia’s economy depends on external market flows, has high import levels, and domestic activity centered on construction. However, it lacks a strong industrial base, competitive exports, and long-term economic resilience.
The Key Question Remains Unanswered
“The government presents the growth figure as a success. But we need to ask a simple, decisive question: can this structure of growth strengthen Armenia’s economic security and improve people’s well-being in the long run? The numbers clearly suggest the opposite,” Ananyan concluded.