Between January and October 2025, Armenia’s foreign trade turnover amounted to approximately AMD 165 billion (USD equivalent), marking a 37.1% decline compared to the same period in 2024. Exports fell even more sharply, by 44.7%. Some experts describe the situation as manageable, while others view it as a direct threat to economic security.
Export Collapse and Structural Weakness
According to former State Revenue Committee head Davit Ananyan, the main pillar of exports remains broken. Even the 12% month-on-month increase recorded in October does not change the overall trend: exports reached USD 744.4 million in October compared to around USD 664 million in September.
A closer look at export structure reveals that the entire burden of decline comes from one category — precious stones and metals. Exports in this group dropped by 73–75%, from USD 7.4 billion in the first ten months of 2024 to USD 1.96 billion in 2025. For several years, this segment served as the backbone of gold re-exports. Once that flow nearly stopped, the export system lost its main driver.
Real Exports Nearly Stagnant
Excluding re-exports, real export growth is minimal. Some manufacturing-related sectors posted gains, including processed food (+25.3%), machinery and equipment (+49.7%), plant-based products (+27.5%), and mining (+11.1%). However, these gains offset only a small portion of the overall decline.
Without gold, net export growth stands at just 2–3%, effectively indicating a halt in industrial exports.
Import Decline as a Warning Signal
Imports totalled USD 10.1 billion during the same period, down 31.2% year-on-year. This reflects market contraction, reduced demand for raw materials and equipment, and weakening investment and production activity.
GDP Growth as a Balancing Factor
Former Finance Minister Levon Barkhudaryan considers the decline largely natural, given last year’s heavy reliance on gold re-exports. He notes that while foreign trade turnover fell by nearly 38%, Armenia’s GDP still grew by 5.2%, suggesting that the economy has moved closer to its structural equilibrium.