Armenia is located in one of the most sensitive geopolitical positions in the post-Soviet space, balancing between Russia and the West while also facing the influence of Turkey and Iran and the unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan.
Against this backdrop, the intensifying rivalry between Russia and the United States has further complicated the strategic environment surrounding the country.
This was stated by political analyst Arsen Gasparyan, who emphasized that current international dynamics are creating fundamentally harsher foreign policy conditions for Yerevan.
Growing pressure and the risk of losing subjectivity
According to Gasparyan, the first major trend is the growing geopolitical pressure on Armenia and the increasing uncertainty in the field of security.
He also noted that some Western-backed initiatives and reforms implemented in Armenia are perceived as openly anti-Russian in orientation, which adds further tension to the regional configuration.
Gasparyan believes that amid the deepening competition between the United States and Russia, the absence of a clearly formulated and consistent foreign policy strategy could lead to serious consequences for Armenia.
According to him, the country risks gradually losing its political subjectivity and turning into an “arena of geopolitical competition.”
Uncertainty in the security sphere
The second key problem, according to the analyst, concerns Armenia’s security architecture.
Gasparyan argues that Armenia is currently facing the absence of a stable and predictable security system, creating what he described as an “unprecedented period of strategic uncertainty” in the country’s post-Soviet history.
At the same time, he emphasized that Armenia and Russia formally continue to maintain a substantial legal framework for cooperation.
This includes the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, the agreement on the Russian military base extended until 2044, the joint air defense system, and elements of military-technical cooperation.
Crisis of allied relations
According to Gasparyan, the existence of a legal framework does not mean the absence of a crisis in bilateral relations.
On the contrary, he argues that political tensions and differing interpretations of allied obligations have become especially visible precisely against the background of existing agreements.
The political analyst stated that perceptions of crisis in Armenian-Russian relations are interpreted differently both inside Armenia and abroad.
Some experts link the situation to Russia’s changing role in the region and the redistribution of its foreign policy priorities.
Others associate it with expectations that, according to critics, do not always take into account the mutual nature of alliance relations.
In this context, Gasparyan stressed that allied relations cannot function unilaterally and require consideration of the interests of both sides.
According to him, it is precisely the imbalance of expectations and interpretations that deepens the crisis of trust.
Armenia without a full alternative
Gasparyan concluded that the system of legal obligations and relations between Armenia and Russia remains a key element of the regional security architecture.
He stated that at present he does not see a full alternative to the existing legal and treaty framework that defines Armenian-Russian cooperation.
Against this backdrop, he believes Armenia’s main challenge lies not only in external pressure but also in the absence of a long-term and comprehensive foreign policy doctrine capable of stabilizing the country’s position amid intensifying international competition.