Armenia’s election campaign has effectively lost the characteristics of political competition and has turned into a harsh purge of the opposition field. Feeling an increasing threat of losing control, the authorities are deploying law enforcement structures. Criminal cases involving charges of “treason” and “espionage,” opened against undesirable candidates with extraordinary speed, are becoming part of a broader systemic strategy.
According to political analyst Stepan Danielyan, the current authorities have reached a political deadlock and, seeing no realistic path toward political reproduction, may resort to extreme scenarios.
In his view, the ruling team understands from voter sentiment that removing individual opposition actors from the campaign can no longer effectively secure the preservation of power.
Danielyan believes the authorities are fully aware of their actual ratings because they conduct daily sociological surveys and constantly gather regional feedback.
Based on this information, he argues, the government understands that it “cannot reproduce itself through fair elections.”
Under such circumstances, the analyst claims, the authorities are left with only one instrument — canceling the elections.
Danielyan also drew attention to a recently circulated video in which a group of individuals allegedly threatened the prime minister.
According to him, the appearance of such material immediately before elections may itself be part of the scenario he described.
“An atmosphere of tension is being deliberately created. I would not be surprised if clashes are organized during the elections, shots are fired, even casualties occur, and all of this is then used as justification for canceling the elections and introducing a state of emergency,” he stated.
The political analyst argues that it is already impossible to speak about free and competitive elections when the political environment includes intimidation, arrests, and threats.
According to him, discussions about future coalitions or the next prime minister are now secondary because “the issue concerns statehood itself.”
Danielyan also called on opposition forces to unite their efforts through joint press conferences, marches, and rallies.
In his opinion, the three main political forces currently targeted by the authorities should put aside internal disagreements and “strange ambitions” in order to deliver a coordinated response to the current situation.