Armenia may receive fuel from Azerbaijan for the first time. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze instructed officials to organize a free, one-time shipment of Azerbaijani fuel through Georgia to Armenia. Tbilisi confirmed that on December 5 it received an official request for fuel transit from Azerbaijan — following Azerbaijani media claims that tariff restrictions were blocking deliveries.
Some observers view this as a step toward unblocking regional communications. But is unblocking becoming reality, or is this a temporary, even symbolic action? Energy experts Armen Manvelyan and Vahe Davtyan share their assessments.
A PR Action Without Real Substance
According to Armen Manvelyan, talk of importing Azerbaijani fuel has no practical basis and serves PR goals.
He compares it to the grain shipment story, when a supposed “import” turned out to be a tiny amount of animal feed.
“If they mean fuel, it is most likely a small shipment of diesel that will have no impact. Armenia, as a member of the EAEU, receives oil products from Russia cheaply and consistently.”
Manvelyan argues that this fits the logic of a “false peace agenda”:
“Authorities in Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to convince people that ‘processes are moving forward’ and peace is near. In reality, these are one-time actions meant to manipulate public opinion.”
He adds that even if fuel hypothetically reaches Armenia, the main issue is not transportation but consumption — and Azerbaijan simply doesn’t have free export volumes.
“Azerbaijan has long-term supply commitments to various countries. At the same time, its oil production has dropped by nearly 40% over the past 10–15 years. Large exports are not possible.”
Manvelyan concludes that the entire narrative is aimed at creating the illusion of positive developments, while ignoring the fact that:
“If Armenia buys Azerbaijani fuel, it indirectly contributes to Azerbaijan’s military budget. Oil revenue increases Baku’s defense spending. And yet we are told the opposite.”
Geopolitical Calculations Behind the Process
Energy security expert Vahe Davtyan also draws parallels with the Kazakh grain issue. He highlights that the focus is on strategic sectors — particularly those where Armenia relies heavily on Russia.
According to him, the process must be viewed within a broader geopolitical context.
He argues that Azerbaijan is trying to show Europe that it is ready to support communication reopening in the South Caucasus.
“Azerbaijan seeks to strengthen its role in Europe’s energy market. Baku and Brussels agreed to expand gas deliveries. The second key direction is the ‘Middle Corridor’. Azerbaijan wants the South Caucasus to become a core link in that route.”
Davtyan notes that Georgia openly fears losing transit importance, estimating a potential 20–25% reduction in cargo flows.
This is why, he says, Tbilisi actively participates in such initiatives, trying to preserve its role.
“Georgia positions itself as an intermediary between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And remember: Azerbaijan used the ‘Zangezur Corridor’ issue in tariff negotiations. Now Georgia wants to signal that it remains a key transit hub and an integral part of the regional architecture.”