Discussions on potential easing of movement along the Armenia–Turkey border gained momentum after Bloomberg reported, citing its sources, that the border could open within the next six months for citizens of third countries and holders of diplomatic passports.
According to Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan, this is not a real opening. He considers the ongoing developments a part of pre-election strategy and an imitation of progress that benefits both Armenia’s current government and Ankara.
The “six-month window” fits the logic of the upcoming elections
Melkonyan notes that Turkey and Azerbaijan are interested in the continuation of Armenia’s current government.
“That is why, until the next parliamentary elections, they will take direct or indirect steps to support the authorities. One of these mechanisms is creating the impression of progress on opening the Armenia–Turkey border for third-country citizens. The government will use this as a campaign message — that peace is coming and the border is opening.”
However, this possible opening will not apply to Armenian citizens. It will affect only foreigners and a limited number of diplomats. Melkonyan reminds that similar arrangements already exist at the diplomatic level. Therefore, this is not the lifting of a blockade, but a cosmetic change serving political interests.
Ankara’s preconditions remain unchanged
Melkonyan emphasizes that Turkey has not changed its position for years.
Normalization of relations is tied to Armenia fulfilling all Azerbaijani demands — including constitutional changes and signing a peace treaty.
“Turkey has never stepped back from its preconditions — even when Hillary Clinton said that ‘the ball is in Turkey’s court’. Today, when Armenia demonstrates readiness for concessions, there is no political logic for Turkey to open the border without securing a full package of concessions.”
He describes Yerevan’s statements about “normalization without preconditions” as a diplomatic absurdity.
“How can relations be without preconditions if the authorities themselves admit that Turkey links the process to Azerbaijan? This simply does not reflect reality.”
Is the railway reopening technically possible? Yes. Politically? No.
Answering the question about the railway, Melkonyan says that technically the line can operate. It functioned even during the blockade, in rare cases of grain transport.
But politically, everything is part of the same logic.
“They discuss the railway, the checkpoint, even the color of the barrier. It creates the illusion of movement. But Turkey will keep the process half-open until Armenia fully meets Azerbaijan’s demands.”
Opening the border at the expense of sovereignty is meaningless
Melkonyan concludes that if the opening of the border is tied to external obligations, it loses its strategic value.
“If the opening happens at the cost of constitutional changes and fulfilling all Azerbaijani demands, Armenia may get open doors — but lose key elements of internal sovereignty.”