The significance of the meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit lay not so much in its content as in the timing of the meeting. Political analyst Boris Navasardyan made this assessment.
According to him, until this summer Yerevan and Baku still had the opportunity to choose areas and episodes in the development of their relations where problems were relatively easy to resolve. That option is no longer available.
In the analyst’s assessment, even the problems related to Kirants and the delimitation carried out in that section, despite the political tensions they caused in Armenia, were milder and more manageable compared with today’s challenges.
“The problems that Baku and Yerevan will face during these months are much more complex and will require serious approaches and serious diplomatic efforts,” Navasardyan said.
Delimitation: The Most Difficult Stage Is Still Ahead
According to Navasardyan, Armenia’s priority at this stage is to preserve the bilateral format with Azerbaijan, which has already demonstrated its effectiveness, while taking the most creative possible approach to the solutions that need to be found within the framework of relations between the two countries.
Among these issues, he also highlights the delimitation process.
In his assessment, the process has slowed considerably, and since 2024 no progress has been recorded, at least on the ground.
Under a previously reached agreement, delimitation was to begin in northeastern Armenia, from the point where the borders of the three South Caucasus republics meet, and continue southward.
However, according to the analyst, the enclave issue is also closely connected to this process.
“Sooner or later, if the delimitation process continues in this direction, we will reach Artsvashen and the adjacent territories. The solutions, I repeat, have not yet been found; even a model for the solutions has not been found,” he said.
Navasardyan considers this one of the most serious challenges in which Yerevan and Baku will have to find the most constructive options possible.
According to him, the difficulty is that at this stage the issues will directly affect the interests of individual residents, their security expectations and the socioeconomic problems of families.
The collision between a political issue and people’s specific problems, he says, can inevitably generate tensions.
As an example, he again points to Kirants, noting that even relatively minor socioeconomic issues there made it quite difficult to overcome the problem and find solutions.
“In short, all of this is, of course, understood in Moscow, and they are trying to use it in their own interests,” the analyst said.
Russia Will Try to Continue Its Old Political Tradition
According to the analyst, these difficulties are further compounded by Russia’s attempts to continue the political tradition it employed three years ago and earlier — using Armenian-Azerbaijani disagreements to preserve its own influence over both countries.
According to him, Russia is applying fairly tough measures toward Armenia, while its approach toward Azerbaijan is softer.
Navasardyan believes this is because Moscow continues to regard Armenia as the weaker link in the Baku–Yerevan tandem and believes that pressure on Armenia, including economic sanctions, can produce results.
In Azerbaijan’s case, in his assessment, Russia is primarily attempting to use a methodology or tactic of courting Baku.
One of the key directions of this policy is again connected with Point 9 of the November 9–10, 2020 statement and the issue of the Meghri road.
“Russia is once again trying to show Azerbaijan that perhaps it can be a better partner on this issue than the United States, or at least to make Azerbaijan interested in adding Russian support to US efforts on this issue,” he said.
However, Navasardyan believes Baku is not particularly tempted by the proposed solutions because it sees a more effective prospect in TRIPP, as well as in direct bilateral Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations and the development of relations.
Russia Hopes to Implement the “Gyumri Scenario”
“So we must be prepared for fairly tough actions by Russia, which are also connected with our domestic political developments,” the analyst said.
According to him, one of these processes concerns local government elections, where Russia, in his assessment, hopes to implement the “Gyumri scenario” and thereby influence the policies of the central government as well.
Another direction is the demand to hold a referendum.
Navasardyan believes Russia is trying to compel Armenia to hold this referendum, fully aware that regardless of its outcome, both the referendum itself and the period leading up to it could deepen domestic political tensions and disagreements in Armenia.
According to him, this process could also intensify the debate over a Russian versus European or Western orientation.
“Yes, Russia will use this toolkit,” he stressed.