The situation around Iran is once again approaching a “bifurcation point,” where developments can go in several directions, and the most dangerous scenario is the launch of ground military operations — a possibility that, in essence, no one rules out. This was stated by political analyst Sergey Melkonyan.
He emphasized that the scenario of partitioning Iran has effectively been taken off the agenda. The political analyst notes that, despite calls from Israel and the United States, no internal movement capable of contributing to the realization of this scenario has formed inside Iran.
Against this backdrop, dissatisfaction with the situation around Iran is growing in the United States, and President Donald Trump has limited time to demonstrate a foreign policy success. “April, May, June — there are about three months left to at least be able to ‘sell’ some kind of victory to the public,” he noted, also recalling the symbolic significance of July 4 — US Independence Day.
According to the political analyst, the scenario of ground military operations in this case follows more of a “casino logic,” where a side that has already suffered losses continues to raise the stakes in an attempt to compensate for previous failures.
Moreover, even in the case of successful military operations, this would only be half the task. Melkonyan stresses that capturing territory does not yet mean victory. He cited Russia’s actions in Ukraine as an example, reminding that strategic successes near Kyiv did not lead to long-term control. “The problem is not only to capture, but also to hold,” he emphasized, adding that the same problem could arise for the United States.
In his assessment, such a development could lead to the most severe consequences, as continuous escalation increases the overall risk of losses. At the same time, Melkonyan notes that under such a scenario the only real beneficiary could be Israel, while the other parties would face serious challenges.
Iranian affairs expert Vardan Voskanyan also assesses the risk of possible ground military scenarios as high. He notes that although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington is not preparing ground operations against Iran, the actual increase in American military presence in the region suggests the opposite.
According to Voskanyan, the deployment of additional troops to the Middle East is a fact, and such a development itself indicates that the war is not proceeding according to the scenario originally planned by the US and Israel.
The Iranist states that possible countermeasures are already being discussed in Iran, especially in the event of the start of ground military operations. According to his information, expert circles are considering options for “asymmetric responses” that could significantly change the balance of power in the region. One such scenario involves opening a ground corridor from southwestern Iran toward Kuwait with the support of pro-Iranian forces in Iraq. The goal could be an advance toward American military bases in Kuwait and their capture.
Voskanyan also mentions a second possible direction related to Iraqi Kurdistan: “A second direction of a possible Iranian ground offensive is considered to be the capture of military camps of anti-Iranian forces in the territory of the Iraqi Kurdistan,” he notes.
Thus, developments in the region could quickly move into a new, even more dangerous phase, where ground operations would be conducted simultaneously in several directions.