The growing confrontation between Israel and Turkey has significantly reduced Azerbaijan’s ability to maneuver in foreign policy, forcing Baku to align itself more openly with Ankara. This view was expressed by Iran expert Vardan Voskanyan.
According to Voskanyan, until recently Azerbaijan had attempted to maintain close relations simultaneously with both Turkey and Israel, pursuing what he described as a policy of “holding two watermelons in one hand.” However, following Israel’s governmental recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the opportunities for such balancing have diminished considerably.
Recognition of the Armenian Genocide Has Pushed Baku Toward a More Pro-Turkish Position
In Voskanyan’s assessment, Israel’s decision, which he argues “has nothing to do with morality,” has forced Azerbaijan to adopt a more openly pro-Turkish stance.
According to the expert, this position has already been reflected even in official statements issued by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
At the same time, Voskanyan believes that Baku’s position cannot be explained solely by the “one nation, two states” principle traditionally emphasized by Azerbaijani authorities.
The Iranian Factor Has Become an Additional Strategic Consideration
Voskanyan stresses that Azerbaijan’s calculations have also been influenced by the outcome of recent US and Israeli military operations against Iran.
According to him, Iran’s ability to demonstrate its regional capabilities through missile strikes has made an openly pro-Israeli alliance significantly more risky for Baku.
“Being an ally of Israel while having a neighboring country like Iran, which has demonstrated its regional influence through missile capabilities, has now become extremely dangerous,” Voskanyan argues.
Distancing From Israel Also Carries Serious Risks
However, according to the expert, moving away from Israel could also create serious problems for Azerbaijan’s political leadership.
Voskanyan believes that the relative stability of the current Azerbaijani government rests on two principal external pillars: support from Turkey and Israel. The loss of either of these supports could weaken the position of the ruling authorities.
Azerbaijan May Find Itself Caught Between Two Strategic Partners
The Iran expert also argues that Azerbaijan’s political system has developed around a hereditary model of governance and remains heavily dependent on the country’s current leadership.
As a result, under the present geopolitical circumstances, Azerbaijan’s leadership could face a difficult strategic dilemma, finding itself, as Voskanyan puts it, “between the Israeli hammer and the Turkish anvil.”