Logistics and energy are no longer purely economic sectors. They have turned into full-fledged geopolitical instruments used by global powers to expand their economic and political influence. This was stated by former Prime Minister of Armenia Khosrov Harutyunyan.
He noted that while this was not the case 7–10 years ago, it is now clear that energy and logistics have effectively become geopolitics. This trend has become especially evident in recent years.
China’s “Belt and Road” as a model of calculated influence
Harutyunyan emphasized that China pursues a calculated and pragmatic policy. The Belt and Road Initiative is a direct expression of this approach.
According to him, China makes offers to transit countries that are difficult to refuse. These projects are beneficial for the states involved. At the same time, China’s main markets remain Europe and the United States.
The U.S. approach and Donald Trump’s strategy
Harutyunyan stated that U.S. President Donald Trump pursued a policy aimed at neutralizing China’s influence. While offering attractive economic proposals, Washington attaches strict and explicit conditions.
“Trump says: I am not against your prosperity and I am ready to help, but the sources of your enrichment must be under my control,” Harutyunyan explained.
He added that this logic is also applied to Ukraine, Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, particularly regarding control over natural resources and strategic assets.
C5+1 and the rethinking of Central Asia
According to Harutyunyan, U.S. interest in Central Asia has increased sharply in recent years. This is due to a reassessment of the region’s geopolitical and geo-economic importance.
He recalled the C5+1 meeting, during which the United States offered Central Asian countries investments of up to $130 billion. The condition was U.S. involvement in resource management and security systems.
He stressed that Washington is seeking to pull Central Asia out of Russia’s and China’s spheres of influence.
China’s response and Turkey’s role
Harutyunyan noted that China responded quickly to these initiatives. At China’s initiative, a six-country meeting was held in Istanbul, resulting in a memorandum on a new logistics route connecting China to Western Europe.
He emphasized that Turkey plays a key role in this route. Iran is also involved, while Central Asian countries are clearly interested in its implementation.
TRIPP and Armenia’s economic interests
In this context, Harutyunyan is highly critical of the TRIPP project in terms of Armenia’s economic benefits. He argued that the approximately 42 kilometers of railway passing through Syunik provide Armenia with almost no economic return.
“Transit fees will be negligible. Azerbaijan is the main beneficiary, gaining direct access to Nakhchivan, Iğdır, and Kars,” he said.
Harutyunyan also referred to an article published in Forbes, which presented numerical estimates of regional beneficiaries. According to the article, Turkey’s exports could grow by up to 310 percent, Azerbaijan’s GDP by around 2 percent annually, and Central Asian exports by about $100 billion.
Armenia, meanwhile, is promised only about €2.5 billion in EU support. “Others receive tangible results, while Armenia is offered little more than promises,” Harutyunyan concluded.