The pre-election process in Armenia фактически started as early as August 8 of last year, when the well-known documents were signed in Washington. From that very moment, the ruling political force intensified its election strategy, presenting its political vision to the electorate. This was stated by political technologist Armen Badalyan.
In his words, today the ruling political force offers the electorate the peace agenda as its ideological core. “It can be accepted or rejected, considered real or fake, but it is a vision,” Badalyan notes, while also posing the question of what systemic proposals other forces are putting forward.
Images of “saviors” and overlapping electorates
Badalyan divides the electorate into several layers. The first consists of ideologically oriented voters, for example the pro-Western segment, for whom the key factor is not the personality of the leader, but Armenia’s geopolitical direction.
Another group, in his formulation, is leader-centric — voting for the image of a “savior.” In this context, he mentions Nikol Pashinyan, whose political persona was formed in 2018 as a “fighter” and “victim for justice.” However, over time, according to Badalyan, the influence of that image has diminished.
In the same field, he also observes Vardan Ghukasyan, asserting that the latter operates in the same “fighter” model, but with a new and “untainted” face. In his assessment, a significant portion of Pashinyan’s electorate is gradually shifting to Ghukasyan’s camp.
At the same time, Pashinyan retains a stable 5–7% layer that, in Badalyan’s formulation, consistently supports the incumbent authorities regardless of personalities. In addition, he benefits from votes of the anti-electorate of Kocharyan and partly Karapetyan.
Kocharyan, Karapetyan, and Tsarukyan share one electorate
Within the so-called “pro-Russian” electorate, according to the political technologist, competition is unfolding among three main figures: Robert Kocharyan, Samvel Karapetyan, and Gagik Tsarukyan.
In Badalyan’s estimation, this trio shares the same ideological and social base, but at present a significant part of the electorate is concentrating around Samvel Karapetyan — due to both his pro-Russian stance and the image of a “miracle businessman.”
Kocharyan’s image as a “winner,” in his opinion, has somewhat weakened, causing a portion of votes to also shift toward Karapetyan. Tsarukyan’s support remains comparatively limited.
In the national-conservative field, competition, according to Badalyan, is taking place not between leaders but between political forces — for example, between the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) and the National Democratic Pole.
Swing voters and anti-electorates
A separate layer consists of swing voters — citizens without a clear political orientation who make decisions based on situational factors. According to Badalyan’s observations, a significant part of this segment is currently also leaning toward Samvel Karapetyan.
He also highlights the factor of anti-electorates. For example, a large part of Pashinyan’s opponents vote for the figure they see as having the greatest chance of defeating the incumbent prime minister — mainly Karapetyan, and partly Kocharyan.
Complex structure without a “pure opposition” electorate
In Armen Badalyan’s conclusion, there is no “pure opposition electorate” in Armenia. Citizens vote not because a force is opposition or pro-government, but based on their expectations, ideological orientation, or the leader’s image.
Thus, according to his assessment, the upcoming elections will take place not as a struggle of statuses, but under conditions of multi-layered electorate realignment and competition of visions.